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Valuta-markedet reagerer på weekendens angreb på Iran med en styrkelse af dollaren og schweizerfranc. Dollarens styrkelse forventes at fortsætte, delvist drevet af USAs energiuafhængighed og spekulationer om Federal Reserves pengepolitik grundet stigende energipriser. De stigende priser på olie og naturgas kan tynge euroen, da Europas energiafhængighed og højere importomkostninger påvirker valutakursen. Emerging markets kan opleve et stop i kapitaltilstrømning, hvilket yderligere kan understøtte dollaren. Vigtige økonomiske data er ventet fra USA, men fokus forbliver på udviklingen i Mellemøsten. I Østeuropa kan Ungarn og Tyrkiet være særlig sårbare over for energiprisstigninger. CIS regionen kan opleve skiftende valutareaktioner, med olie- og guldpriser der påvirker eksportindtægterne.
Fra ING:
The FX fallout from the attack on Iran has been relatively limited so far, with the dollar a little stronger and the Swiss franc outperforming. It seems far too early to try and fight this dollar strength, while sharply higher natural gas prices today should weigh on the euro. We expect the dollar to stay supported this week as investors question Fed easing
Expect the FX market today to keep one eye on the short end of the US curve and whether higher energy prices will restrain Fed easing this year
USD: US energy independence and Fed repricing to help
The FX fallout from the weekend’s attack on Iran has been relatively contained so far in that we have not, yet, seen big 1%+ moves in key FX pairs. True, one of the most popular FX positions, long AUD/USD, did briefly correct more than 1% in early Asia last night but has since recovered.
Yet developments this weekend seem clearly dollar positive and we identify three channels at work here. The first is US energy independence and the energy dependence of Europe and Asia. It seems too early to expect de-escalation in the Middle East and the longer oil and natural gas prices stay higher, the bigger toll it takes on the external accounts of the fossil fuel importing currencies. Investors will remember back in March 2022 when crude stayed bid above $100/bl for three months and natural gas prices tripled and didn’t peak for five months. This sustained rise in energy prices wrecked the terms of trade for the likes of the euro and yen and ushered in a sustained period of dollar strength. Until investors have a stronger idea of when this conflict ends, we would expect the dollar to stay supported. Europe’s TTF natural gas has just opened 25% higher after the 10/12% higher opening for Brent crude last night.
The second channel is what this all means for Federal Reserve policy. Notably, Fed Fund futures contract sold off 3-4 ticks in Asia on the view that the Fed might not be able to cut rates twice this year. This oil shock comes at a time when the January FOMC made it clear that the central bank was losing patience with inflation. Inflation really needed to show signs of falling, the Fed said, otherwise stabilisation in the US jobs market would question whether the Fed needs to cut rates at all. Expect the FX market today to keep one eye on the short end of the US curve and whether higher energy prices will restrain Fed easing this year. Bearish flattening of the US curve is a dollar positive.
The third and related channel is that higher energy prices and questions over the Fed’s ability to cut rates will stop and potentially reverse portfolio flows into emerging markets. The virtuous circle of inflows, stronger EM currencies, local monetary easing cycles and bond and equity rallies could all reverse if energy prices stay elevated for a sustained period. A reversal of those flows would be dollar supportive too.
Economic data releases today/this week will likely take a backseat to rolling headlines from the Middle East. For reference, however, the US calendar sees February ISM manufacturing data, where most interest could be had in the prices paid component.
DXY has already traded through resistance at 98.00. And unless there is some very early de-escalation in the Middle East, we cannot rule out DXY heading back up to 100 this month. Certainly the benign conditions which had favoured a mild dollar decline this year have currently been put on ice.
Chris Turner
EUR: Local positives are being re-assessed
Higher energy prices will see investors re-appraise their view of a renaissance in European industry. That said, the global economy is in a much better position than it was when energy prices spiked in March 2022 and there is now more fiscal support than there was back then.
After a relatively contained Asian session, EUR/USD is now starting to come under pressure in early Europe. Investors have been overweight the euro and European assets on the recovery story this year – a story that will naturally be challenged this week by higher energy prices. Unless there is some early de-escalation, EUR/USD can easily get pushed back to the 1.1575/1650 region, with outside risk to the 1.1575/1600 region. Investors have been right to question the safe haven status of the dollar this year, but given the nature of this shock (energy), it will be the dollar that benefits the most.
Look out for a speech from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at 3:00pm CET today. It looks too early for the ECB to make a clear judgement on what the weekend’s events mean for the inflation profile, but any hawkish remarks could provide some transitory support for the euro.
Elsewhere, EUR/CHF has approached 0.90. The Swiss National Bank will not like it, but expect the focus now to switch to negative interest rates again in Switzerland. The CHF OIS market shows the 1m OIS priced at -12bp in one year’s time. That could well be priced to -25bp as buying pressure remains on the franc.
Chris Turner
CEE: Hungary and Turkey most exposed to increased US-Iran conflict
The conflict in the Middle East is affecting the CEE region mainly through energy prices due to its energy import-dependency and heavy price-taking factors. While it is difficult to estimate the development of global energy prices at this point, it is clear that this will be a one-way street for the market at the opening. Therefore, we generally expect CEE currencies to come under pressure due to risk-off sentiment and rates receivers due to higher inflation expectations through higher oil and gas prices and a stronger US dollar.
In terms of inflation sensitivity to higher oil prices, we see Turkey as the most exposed (10% oil price increase translates into 1.1ppt in CPI) and Hungary (0.45ppt). On the other hand, the Czech Republic shows the lowest pass-through (0.2ppt). However, it can be assumed that central banks considering imminent rate cuts in the region (which is all except Romania) will instead wait and see for now. The first test will be the National Bank of Poland on Wednesday, where we expected a rate cut before the conflict began; this seems rather unlikely from today’s perspective.
From the market perspective, perhaps more than the impact on the CPI and later on the economy, the current positioning will be important. Globally, the conflict has found the market heavily long EM markets, which will deepen the market reaction. Within the region, we expect the Hungarian forint and Turkish lira to be under pressure as the most long currencies. The Central Bank of Turkey already announced its readiness on Sunday, as well as new intervention in the forward market, and at the same time it is entering the stress period with record FX reserves. Our estimates also showed some reduction in positioning in the past two weeks. Therefore, we expect USD/TRY to remain under the control of the central bank. EUR/HUF is likely to see the most upward pressure within the region.
Frantisek Taborsky
CIS: FX reactions to the Middle East tensions to remain uneven
The recent military escalation around Iran has lifted global commodity prices, offering potential support to the external balances of fuel exporters Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, as well as gold exporter Uzbekistan. Every additional and sustained $10/bbl in oil boosts annual export proceeds by $6bn for Kazakhstan and $3bn for Azerbaijan, while a $1,000/oz rise in gold adds around $4bn to Uzbekistan’s export revenues. However, the near‑term FX impact is unlikely to be straightforward, given the domestic constraints and regional risk-off considerations.
Across the region, FX reactions will likely stay uneven. Kazakhstan’s tenge shows only a weak short‑term pass-through from oil due to dividend outflows from the international JVs in the fuel sector, sovereign fund FX sales, and volatile portfolio flows, sensitive to global risk-off episodes. During 12-19 June 2025 (beginning of the 12-Day War), USD/KZT weakened by 1.5% despite a strong 14% Brent rally. Uzbekistan’s soum is better aligned with gold and is more defensive during risk-off episodes, though its managed crawl, irregular gold export timing and twin deficit (budget and current account) limit the positive impulse – a 65% gold price rally in 2025 led to only 7.4% USD/UZS appreciation. Azerbaijan’s manat is anchored at a 1.70 USD peg, with higher oil prices further reducing an already distant risk of de‑pegging. Azerbaijan and Armenia’s proximity to Iran is a watch factor in case of further escalation.
Near term, we would be cautious on KZT, given its limited oil pass‑through and exposure to regional and global risk‑off episodes. UZS appears slightly better positioned to benefit from elevated uncertainty, even if longer-term gains are likely to remain limited.
Dmitry Dolgin
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