“I think that it has become quite clear now that this is the biggest bluff in history and it has gone horribly wrong with Trump having painted himself into a corner he is struggling to get out of. It was borne out of hubris over successful strikes on Iran last summer and Venezuela this year and with belief that Iran was weakened after recent riots. Time to bend Iran into submission. Maximum pressure. Maximum military threats. Then a new nuclear deal. That was the plan. A great story on this in FT yesterday with the following quote: “Who wants this? Nobody wants this,” said Miller at the Carnegie Endowment. “We’re sleep walking towards a war, in search of a strategy.” Difficult to stand down without loosing face. Now it is difficult for Trump to back down and pull out all his gunboats and fighter jets without loosing face. Iran, rather than backing down and agreeing to all and any term he is placing on the table (as he had expected), is instead daring him to attack. ”Just you try it and you will see what you will get!” is kind of what Iran implicitly said to Trump when it held military drills in the Strait of Hormuz last week. Lots of gunboats and fighter jets but ammunition may only last 5 days.” Læs hele analysen her.
Morten W. Langer
