Resume af analyse fra JP Morgan:
En blokade af Hormuzstrædet rammer ikke kun efterspørgslen efter olie, men kan også få alvorlige konsekvenser for udbuddet. Når olie ikke kan eksporteres, fyldes lagertankene i Mellemøsten hurtigt op, og producenterne kan blive tvunget til at reducere produktionen. I modsætning til efterspørgslen tager det uger både at lukke og genåbne olieproduktion, hvilket kan skabe langvarige forstyrrelser på markedet.
En analyse fra JPMorgan viser, at situationen kan udvikle sig hurtigere end først antaget. I stedet for de tidligere anslåede 25 dage før lagerkapaciteten er opbrugt, kan Irak og Kuwait nå grænsen allerede efter henholdsvis cirka to og 13 dage. Hvis Hormuz fortsat er blokeret, kan tvungne produktionsstop stige til omkring 3,3 millioner tønder om dagen inden for få dage og op mod 4,7 millioner tønder dagligt efter knap tre uger.
Flere tegn tyder allerede på faldende produktion i Irak, og tankskibstrafikken gennem Hormuz er stort set gået i stå. Samtidig øger angreb på olieinfrastruktur og tankskibe risikoen for yderligere forstyrrelser og højere oliepriser. Saudi-Arabien forsøger delvist at afbøde situationen ved at omdirigere olie gennem en rørledning til Rødehavet, men kapaciteten er ikke stor nok til fuldt ud at kompensere for en lukning af Hormuzstrædet.
While it is widely understood that a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz is bad for the global economy as it means oil can’t reach its intended users, effectively shutting down the demand side as there is no raw product to process, a far more ominous downstream effect of a blockade is what happens on the supply side should global oil transit remain halted .
As a result, oil producers across the Middle East face a tense countdown as the Iran war blocks the strait, as the oil fills the countries’ short-term storage tanks, which threatens output cuts if the situation persists. And unlike demand, which can restart in an instant the moment product arrives, forced shut-ins take weeks to implement, and then weeks to undo, resulting in substantial supply-side lags which lead to dramatic long-term impacts.
Which brings us to a new report written by JPMorgan’s top commodity strategist, Natasha Kaneva, and available to pro subs: readers will recall that at the start of the week, we reported when the countdown began on Sunday with the news that the vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a near standstill, JPmorgan assumed the oil market had about 25 days before Gulf producers would hit storage limits and be forced to cut production (See “The Most Important Number For The Market: “25 Days“.)
But while the estimate proved right on average, it was wrong in practice: the reason is that unlike the unlimited storage assumed, some countries have abundant storage, while others have almost none.
Using storage data from the conflict’s first day, JPMorgan now estimates in a follow up note that Iraq and Kuwait have approximately two and 13 days, respectively, as of Wednesday, until they shut-in the crude supply that is exported via Hormuz. Worse, this is a conservative assessment: it excludes some product storage sites and unassigned ballast vessels within the Persian Gulf, which can be re-routed to either country. Some reports suggest that only six to twelve VLCCs are available for booking.
So here is the new math. Forget the 25 days: If Hormuz remains blocked, supply losses would accelerate, and by day 8 (which is in 3 days) there would be roughly 3.3 mbd of forced shut‑ins, rising to 3.8 mbd around day 15 and 4.7 mbd by day 18. These calculations apply to crude only; refined products are excluded.
In other words, according to JPM’s new storage countdown, production shut-ins could double in 3 days at which point all bets are off on what happens to the energy market.
“If oil producers reach ‘tank tops’ for lack of export outlets, then they have to curtail output,” said Antoine Halff, co-founder and chief analyst of geospatial analytics company Kayrros. Even in Saudi Arabia, the Ju’aymah terminal on the country’s east coast “was quickly running out of spare capacity” as of March 1, Halff added. Four of the six tanks at the Ras Tanura refinery – halted after attacks by Iran this week – were full, he said.
“Not all capacity is equal,” said Halff. “Some tanks matter more than others by virtue of their location relative to oil fields or loading facilities. All storage facilities are not interconnected so there is a lot of inefficiency in the system.”
These estimates align with Tuesday’s reports that Iraq has cut production by roughly 1.5 mbd already – 700 kbd at the world’s second-largest oil field Rumaila, 460 kbd at West Qurna‑2, and 325 kbd at Maysan. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively stalled.
Aside from Iranian vessels, there have been no confirmed crude‑tanker crossings into or out of the strait, although some ships appear to be transiting with transponders switched off. For example, an empty Suezmax, the Pola (1 MMbbl capacity), entered the strait at 2:00 a.m. local time before switching off its signal.
There is some speculation that Iran would allow Chinese and Russian tankers to transit, which would immediately change the equation as it would unlock substantial on-water storage capacity (as a reminder, China is by far the biggest end market for Gulf and certain Iranian output). However, until this is an official policy by Iran it remains purely speculation.
To be sure, the Trump admin could help reopen flows through the Strait of Hormuz by pairing naval escorts with government-backed war-risk insurance, reducing both the physical and financial risk of transit although logistical issues remain. Speed and decisiveness are critical, as tightening storage constraints mean delays will quickly translate into forced shut-ins.
Meanwhile, oil infrastructure continues to be targeted: the UAE reported a fire at its Fujairah hub—home to multiple refineries and storage facilities—following the interception of a drone.
The Fujairah incident and potential production shutdowns in Iraq jolted markets on Tuesday, pushing Brent towards $85/b. Things got worse overnight, when as we reported a tanker off the Kuwait coast was hit by an explosion spilling oil in the water. As Bloomberg’s commodity expert wrote, “If Iran (or uncontrolled elements) start attacking fully laden oil tankers **anywhere** in the Persian Gulf (rather than Hormuz), even at the risk of an oil spill, then all bets are off. It could fast forward production shut ins as it may prompt countries to stop loadings.”
Amid all the latest negative development, there was a sliver of good news: as Blas also notes, “we’re beginning to see the first signs that the Saudis are re-routing oil via the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. It’s certainly no enough to offset the losses of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But it helps.”
The East-West pipeline is rated at ~7million b/d, according to Saudi Aramco. Before the war, it was operating at less than that half capacity, so an extra 5million b/d is available to remove inventory build up. The four major berths at the Yambu crude oil terminal has capacity to load that — and quite more.
