Resume af teksten:
Olienpriserne steg, efter USA og Israel udførte angreb i Iran. Brent-olieprisen nåede $88, hvilket kan reducere amerikansk økonomisk vækst med omkring 0,1% point, ifølge Goldman Sachs. Øgede oliepriser påvirker husholdningers rådighedsbeløb og øger forbrugerprisindekset (CPI) inflationen med 28 basispoint ved en vedvarende stigning på 10%. Koreanske aktier oplevede store tab og gevinster grundet olieprisstigningen og investorrisiko. Volatiliteten tvang mange investorer til at trække sig tilbage for at undgå “VaR chok.” Kunstig intelligens (AI) forudsiges at øge banksektorens afkast ved at reducere omkostninger, forbedre indtægter og mindske lånetab. AI bruges i områder som dataanalyse og kundeinteraktioner og er afgørende for bankernes fremtidige økonomiske position.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Oil jumped following US and Israeli strikes in Iran. Brent oil, the international benchmark, rose to $88 on Thursday, up from $61 at the end of last year. The impact of rising oil prices on the US economy will depend on the extent of transportation disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Goldman Sachs Research economists Jessica Rindels and Pierfrancesco Mei. “History suggests that oil price spikes driven by geopolitical shocks can be short-lived if markets gain confidence that supply disruptions will be temporary,” they write in a report. Rindels and Mei estimate that each $10 per barrel increase in oil prices would reduce US economic growth this year by about 0.1 percentage point (on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis) if prices stabilize at a higher level. Higher oil prices weigh on households’ disposable income, which in turn limits their spending. Goldman Sachs Research finds that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation by 28 basis points. If oil prices increase by $10 and remain elevated for three months, Rindels and Mei write, US year-over-year headline CPI inflation would likely rise from 2.4% in January to 3% in May.
Read Goldman Sachs Research’s full report on the global economic impacts of the war with Iran.
How to Get to and Through Goldman Sachs
The most valuable thing you can have as a rising leader at Goldman Sachs is the support of the people under you, according to former CEO and chairman Lloyd Blankfein. “You should make everybody in the world love you. But if I had to push a button and choose between the two, I’d rather have the support of the people that were working for me, working with me, than people above me,” Blankfein says. In the latest episode of Talks at GS , Blankfein describes his career, from selling peanuts as a child at the old Yankee Stadium to ascending to the top role at Goldman Sachs. The firm’s partnership structure means that managers expect to be informed on how the broader company operates, even beyond the team that they oversee. This entails more consultation than a more hierarchical corporate setting, Blankfein says. “It’s not like lightning bolts radiate from your fingers.” But it also means that “everyone listens, everyone throws in. And as a result of that, you have a much better, coherent, stable organization,” he adds. Blankfein advises people starting out in their career to take advantage of their familiarity with new ideas and technologies. “Experience is a two-edged sword,” he says. In some businesses, he adds, younger people have sway over the older people “because they’re much more conversant with the new stuff, and older people—dinosaurs, such as we are—are a little bit slower and don’t have that mettle.”
From the Trading Floor: A ‘Vicious’ Week for Popular Trades
Korean stocks suffered historic losses this week, falling 12% in a single day—before making back much of that decline with a 10% one-day rally. The sharp moves may say more about investor positioning—the concentrations of positions within particular portfolios—than about economic fundamentals.
Some investors initially blamed Korean equities’ decline on the spike in oil prices due to the conflict in Iran. But Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund coverage for Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, says this can provide only a very partial explanation, given that “Korea is not the most oil-sensitive country in the region.” Instead, the volatility seemed to build on itself in a way that forced asset holders to exit their positions; as prices fell and volatility rose, investors were forced to exit their positions in order to avoid breaching limits on the amount of “value at risk,” in a phenomenon known as a “VaR shock.” “When everyone has the same trades, these unwinds can be vicious,” says Shawn Tuteja, who oversees ETF and custom baskets volatility trading. Korean equities were far from the only assets to see such dramatic action. “This week we’ve seen a total unwind of the year-to-date winning trades,” Tuteja says. For instance, he notes that while gold might have been expected to rally amid rising geopolitical tensions, it actually fell this week—because it, too, has been a popular hedge fund holding, and so was sold as managers were forced to shrink their portfolios in order to avoid breaching volatility limits. Investors also closed short trades. As a result, stocks that investors were widely betting against, such as software stocks, rallied as those trades were unwound. The upshot is that, according to Goldman Sachs Prime Services data, Tuesday was the worst session for long-short managers (investors who pair long positions against short positions) since last April’s tariff selloff—even as the S&P 500 fell by less than 1%.
As for Korean equities in particular, the fundamentals still give investors reason to expect more gains, says Enna Hattori in Global Banking & Markets. “ You can’t discount the fact that we are facing the biggest geopolitical event in some time,” Hattori says. “But from a relative perspective, I remain constructive on Korea, especially in the near-term.”
How AI Is Forecast to Boost Banking Returns
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping banking, offering institutions that invest thoughtfully in the technology a path to higher long‑term returns and a defense against competitive threats, according to Goldman Sachs Research. AI could add roughly 2.4 percentage points to sector‑wide returns on equity, mainly through cutting costs, improved revenue, and reduced loan losses, according to a recent report. The team finds that the opportunity from cutting costs is more than four times greater than the opportunity for additional revenue.
And banks are already putting the technology to use. Goldman Sachs Research examined about 100 current AI initiatives across banks. They found four key areas in which it is having the biggest impact: data analysis, internal process automation, credit, risk & legal, and customer service. Read more of our insights on artificial intelligence .
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
