“Strategies and objectives (p. 3-4): The US-Israeli strategy aims to coerce Iranian compliance on key demands (zero enrichment, missiles, proxies) through military decimation, while Iran pursues regional arson to generate shared costs and deter US involvement. The central question is at what point escalation pain produces an off-ramp – through negotiations, capitulation, or a ”12-day war” scenario. Energy market (p. 5): Oil at $80 lacks a serious risk premium, with futures pricing only temporary disruptions. For a Ukraine-comparable risk premium, oil needs to reach $100-110, while trapped Qatari gas exports could drive gas prices up 100% on a 30-day supply disruption before demand destruction sets in. Inflation (p.6): A prolonged conflict generates two scenarios: current prices ($85 Brent, $55 TTF) push US and Euro inflation to ~3%, while sharp escalation ($100 Brent, $100 TTF) drives inflation to 4-5%. Swedish inflation stands out on the downside due to lower starting position and minimal gas consumption. Rates & monetary policy implications (p.7): The risk picture has shifted from cuts to potential hikes.” Læs hele analysen her.
Morten W. Langer
