Top headlines of conflict 

• Trump says the war with Iran will end soon, as there is ‘practically nothing left to target.” 
• Yet U.S. and Israeli officials plan at least two more weeks of strikes
• U.S. forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
• Iran’s drone production has been significantly degraded.
• The IEA is preparing its largest-ever emergency crude oil release to counter surging Brent and WTI prices.
• Casualty estimates: over 1,200 killed in Iran from U.S./Israeli strikes (plus civilian reports), 13 deaths in Israel from Iranian retaliation, and 140 U.S. service members wounded (mostly minor).

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Update (1012ET): President Trump on Wednesday said that the war with Iran will end “soon” because there is “practically nothing left to target.”

“Little this and that… Any time I want it to end, it will end,” Trump told Axios during a five-minute phone call, adding “The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period.”

“They were after the rest of the Middle East. They are paying for 47 years of death and destruction they caused. This is payback. They will not get off that easy,” Trump said.

So, Mission Almost Accomplished™ after the Trump administration has given estimates ranging from weeks to months for how long this might take.

Yet while Trump is signaling that the operation has largely accomplished its objectives, US and Israeli officials say there’s been no indication of when fighting might stop. As Axios notes further, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday that fighting will continue “without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign.” Meanwhile, Israeli and US officials say they’re preparing for at least two more weeks of strikes in Iran.

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Update (0930ET):

The most significant development in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday was the start of IRGC naval mining operations, which were met with massive U.S. firepower that destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels. As we continue monitoring the maritime chokepoint this morning after IRGC attacks on three commercial vessels, attention is now shifting to the IRGC’s drone production capacity, which appears to have been degraded.

Bloomberg reports that 2,100 Shaheds have been fired so far in the 12-day conflict. U.S. forces struck IRGC production facilities, disrupting large-scale manufacturing. The report is based on comments from a senior European official.

“Since the Houthis have produced UAVs under bombardment, one would think the Iranians can, albeit not at the same rates, since facilities have to be dispersed and makeshift workshops used,” Sid Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, told the outlet.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Saudi Arabia’s kill-cost ratio, neutralizing $20,000 IRGC drones with $2 million-plus missiles, has spurred talks with a Ukrainian counter-drone company for cheap interceptor drones.

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America-Israel’s Operation Epic Fury entered its 12th day, with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicating that the most intense phase of U.S. strikes is expected on Wednesday. Tehran responded with retaliatory strikes against Gulf neighbors, as Goldman’s foreign affairs chief warned of a growing risk of regional spillover (read here). Overnight, market attention centered on energy, with the IEA reportedly proposing its largest-ever emergency crude release to combat Brent and WTI prices, which have reached triple-digit territory.

“The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes. Intelligence more refined and better than ever. So that’s on one hand,” Hegseth said. “On the other hand, the last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they’ve been capable of firing yet.”

Around 0900 ET, the IEA is expected to announce plans for a massive crude release into the market to cap Brent and WTI prices, which surged near $120 per barrel at the start of the week. In a note to premium subscribers, we outlined several problems that could arise and why any such release would only offer temporary relief.