Resume af teksten:
Japans inflationsdata for februar forventes at vise en fortsat afmatning, drevet af statens energitilskud, selvom kerneinflationen forbliver over 2%. Bank of Japan vurderes at holde rentesatserne uændret, selvom højere energipriser kan presse inflationen op i de kommende måneder. Sydkoreas økonomiske sentiment ventes at falde på grund af stigende geopolitisk usikkerhed og højere benzinpriser, hvilket svækker forbrugeroptroen. Kina har en rolig uge forude med vægt på industrielle profitdata for begyndelsen af året. Taiwans industriproduktion er sat til at aftage noget efter det kinesiske nytår, men ventes stadig at være stærk på grund af høj ekstern efterspørgsel.
Fra ING:
Japan releases February inflation data, while South Korea reports on March sentiment. Other key releases include Taiwan’s industrial production data
Asia Research highlights of the week
Asia FX Talking: Relatively broad-based pressure China beats dreary expectations, but more work needed to support growth Bank of Japan holds rates and offers no signal about its next move
Japan: CPI expected to cool further
Consumer price inflation is expected to slow further in February, primarily due to the government’s energy subsidy. It’s likely to show that the deceleration in inflation we saw before the Middle East crisis persisted. Yet core-core inflation is expected to stay well above 2.0%. Higher energy prices are likely to push up inflation again in the coming months, prompting the Bank of Japan to keep the door open to rate hikes. At the same time, the flash purchasing managers’ index is expected to drop sharply, with manufacturing falling more than services amid concerns about events in the Middle East. Overall, the timing of the next hike remains uncertain. In our view, an April move is unlikely, as the BoJ needs more time to assess the effects of rising energy prices on the economy.
South Korea: Sentiment data becoming less optimistic
Survey results on South Korean sentiment are likely to be less optimistic, as heightened geopolitical tensions reduce both confidence and economic activity. Higher gasoline prices and financial market instability are expected to significantly dent consumer sentiment. This will likely be reflected in the business survey as well.
China: A calm week ahead
It’s a quiet week is ahead for China, with most of the key economic data already out for the month. We’ll get industrial profits data for the first two months of the year on Friday. Markets will watch for any improvement from the sluggish 0.6% year-on-year growth rate in 2025.
Taiwan: Moderating industrial production following Lunar New Year
Taiwan releases its February industrial production data on Tuesday. We expect activity to moderate toward 13.3% YoY thanks to the Lunar New Year effect. But production should be quite robust to start the year amid strong external demand.
Key events in Asia next week
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