Resume af teksten:
Konflikten i Mellemøsten har i over to uger præget den globale scene og skabt usikkerhed omkring Hormuz-strædet og Kharg Island. Mens risiko og diplomatiet er i centrum, står spændingerne mellem EU, USA og Iran i vejen for en mulig våbenhvile. På markeder påvirker det som en stigning i inflation og en vækstskat, hvilket fører til justerede inflationsprognoser for 2026. På makrofronten klarer økonomierne sig relativt godt på trods af usikkerhed, med forbedringer i både amerikansk og kinesisk forbrug. Centrale banker, herunder Bank of England, ECB, og SNB har alle holdt renterne stabile, men er klar til at bekæmpe inflation. Olie og naturgas viser øget markedsstress, men ekstreme prisstigninger er endnu ikke realiserede. Europa står over for usikkerhed, men energipriserne er stadig lavere end tidligere spidser takket være øget forsyning og brug af alternative energikilder.
Fra Julius Bär:
The war in the Middle East has been claiming centre stage for over two weeks. Doubts around Hormuz and the reported strike on Kharg Island have not materially changed the risk landscape as of late, but risk appetite remains fragile all the same.
Diplomacy looks messy
The EU is pressing the White House for an endgame, Tehran denies ceasefire talks, and even a planned Trump-Xi summit, between the US and China, is being used as leverage around shipping security. Markets read this the usual way, i.e. as an inflation impulse and a growth tax. While we stick to our scenario of a swift and intense spike as the most likely playbook, we have to acknowledge some more lasting impacts. That is why we have nudged our 2026 inflation forecasts higher and assume a more cautious monetary policy reaction than markets would like.
The good news is that the economy entered this shock on a firmer footing. US consumer spending is improving, and Chinese early 2026 data points to a rebound in domestic consumption and investment after a tedious soft patch. That resilience matters if the geo-political episode stays contained.
Central banks take centre stage amid uncertainty
Eight of ten G10 central banks delivered decisions, with a ‘super Thursday’ when five weigh in. Nearly all major developed market central banks kept rates unchanged this week, but emphasised their readiness to act to curb inflation. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England were expected to hold, but guidance will matter all the more, and the technical factors add urgency. Many risk assets are already in oversold territory, setting up either a sizeable relief rally if the news flow stabilises or one more leg of pain if it does not. We highlight some of the key decisions below.
Bank of England
The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75% and adopted a more hawkish stance due to the inflationary risks from the Iran war and higher oil prices. Policymakers now expect inflation to overshoot the 2% target in coming quarters. We shift our forecast for policy easing further out. The GBP was supported by a hawkish repricing, though market expectations for tightening appear excessive. We maintain a Neutral GBP outlook.
European Central Bank (ECB)
The ECB left its monetary policy unchanged and emphasised that it was prepared to counter the heightened inflation risks arising from higher energy prices. President Christine Lagarde had to acknowledge that the ECB had moved from a good place, characterised by moderate inflation and growth, to a more complex situation involving upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. The ECB considers itself well positioned to respond to these challenges. We stand by our assessment regarding interest rate developments, assuming a degree of stabilisation in energy markets in the coming months, whilst interest rate hikes by the ECB represent a significant risk to our forecast.
Swiss National Bank (SNB)
The SNB kept its policy rate unchanged at 0%, as expected. The clearest message in its communication was the increased readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange (FX) market to counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc. This indicates that the SNB currently views Swiss franc appreciation as the most immediate risk to price stability. The SNB has slightly raised its conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters due to higher energy prices but expects little change in medium‑term inflation pressures. We maintain our forecast of an unchanged SNB policy rate in 2026 and 2027.
Stress levels remain high on energy markets
Oil seems more nervous than natural gas, with prices trading back up above USD 100, while natural gas remains at EUR 50. That said, there was no news over the weekend 14-15 March about significant energy infrastructure damage. Oil production seems close to maximum shut-ins (i.e., the highest volume of production that can be deliberately taken offline), which we roughly estimate at around 10 million barrels per day – or 10% of global supplies, as alternative trade routes ramp up and some oil still finds its way past the Hormuz choke point. Safe passage by ‘Iran-friendly’ ships remains a development to watch. With major energy infrastructure damage absent, Iran’s military threat softening, and activism towards safe-guarding trade around Hormuz picking up, our base case is still that of a short-lived, intense energy price spike. We assign an unchanged probability of >60% to this scenario.
While political activism is increasing, neither oil nor natural gas prices have climbed to exceptional and growth-damaging levels. The broader story on energy markets until the conflict escalated focused on surplus supplies, and burning through this ‘winter fat’ so far is absorbing the supply shock’s tremors. The Hormuz trade impasse would need to last well beyond March to fully eradicate oil’s surplus buffer, even without accounting for the strategic storage releases.
That said, some emerging markets are experiencing fuel supply shortages due to a lack of storage or lack of diversified sourcing. Europe remains anxious, but both natural gas and power prices remain below the early 2025 spike’s levels, and far away from 2022 market conditions. Rising overseas supplies, more coal being used instead of gas in Asia, lower carbon costs, and strong renewables generation keep a lid on natural gas prices and dampen the impact of gas prices on power markets.
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