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Finanshusenes grafer om den aktuelle markedsstemning: Nasdaq holder langsigtet trendlinje

Morten W. Langer

tirsdag 24. marts 2026 kl. 8:25

Uddrag fra finanshuse:

Back inside…but nothing feels stable
Markets are slipping back into familiar territory. Equities are back inside the range, volatility remains elevated, and positioning is still being tested across assets. From tech to oil to metals, price action is moving, but conviction remains low.
Range revival
SPX is back inside the “eternal” range as the max frustration market continues. Amazingly enough, the 6600/7000 (futures) range continues to hold. Note we are still below the 200 day MA.
LSEG Workspace
Never bet against the big trendline?
Since 2023, the longer-term trendline in the Nasdaq has held, aside from the Liberation Day “roundtrip.”
LSEG Workspace
Lowest in 7 years
Tech valuation premium has fallen to the lowest in 7 years. More on “discounted tech” here.
DB
Computers front running?
We’ve seen this movie before: CTAs dump longs, flip short, and then get caught as markets snap back. Full note here.
GS
Vol control and risk parity
Volatility control and risk parity have not meaningfully reduced exposure. That creates an additional layer of potential supply if volatility continues to rise or macro shocks persist. More here.
GS
No edge zone
Oil has reversed from the upper end of its multi-year range. We remain elevated on a broader view, but headline risk is high, and there’s limited edge in trading oil not far from the middle of the range. More on oil here.
LSEG Workspace
Stress still extreme
Oil volatility, OVX, has cooled from recent panic highs, but remains elevated, still implying roughly 5.5% daily moves. Expect continued erratic price action in both directions.
LSEG Workspace
Oversold gold
Gold has been slightly more oversold on a few occasions over the past decade. Daily RSI at 24 is extreme, but as we all know, oversold tends to stay oversold for longer than most think possible. Latest note on gold here.
LSEG Workspace
Oversold silver
Not what Europe needed
GS: “Our model points to a 0.4pp drag on growth this year from the energy shock”. More on soggy Europe here.
Goldman
Software demand
Goldman notes consistent IGV demand over the past month, describing the setup as “finding a bottom.” Rising shares outstanding alongside price recovery points to accumulation, not just a bounce. More here.

Plenty of moving parts…very little resolution. This is still a trading market, not a trend.

GS

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