Fra Danske Bank:
The war in Iran dominates the macroeconomic outlook for the world economy and the euro area. The two-week cease fire and deal to reopen of the Strait of Hurmuz (SOH) has come as a relief, although we view it as only a temporary de-escalation that buys time. If the ceasefire is permanent and SOH traffic normalises, we expect only a temporary economic impact that ECB could most likely ‘look through’. But given the ongoing uncertainty and likely escalation risks, we still cannot rule out longer economic disruptions and potential tighter monetary policy. We therefore expect the euro area economy to evolve between the ECB’s baseline and adverse scenarios (see charts) with 2026 GDP growth near 0.75% y/y and inflation around 3.0% y/y.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
