Resume af teksten:
Næste uge er fokus på Kina, da landets største økonomi offentliggør vigtige data om BNP, handel, detailsalg, boligpriser og industriel produktion. Handelsdata fra Kina offentliggøres tirsdag, hvor eksporten forventes at stige med 8,8% år-til-år, og importen med 10,1%, hvilket giver et handelsoverskud på $108,2 milliarder. Torsdag frigiver Kina sin BNP-data for første kvartal, hvor væksten forventes at falde til 4,7% år-til-år fra 5,0% i fjerde kvartal. Detailsalget forventes at stige med 2,5% år-til-år. Industriproduktionen estimeres at vokse med omkring 5,5% år-til-år. Boligpriser i 70 byer forudses at være fortsat i negativt territorium. Økonomisk aktivitet forventes generelt at være afdæmpet.
Fra ING:
It’s all about China next week as Asia’s biggest economy releases key data on GDP, trade, retail sales, housing prices and industrial production amid intensifying headwinds from the Middle East
Asia Research highlights of the week
China flashes additional signs of reflation as Iran War impact emerges CNY at a glance: China’s yuan moves into our bullish scenario Philippines inflation inches up, with oil‑driven risks building
China: Moderation in growth is expected
Almost all of China’s key data is set for release. We start with China’s trade data on Tuesday. We expect the very strong export growth in the first two months of the year to moderate in March, with exports up 8.8% year-on-year and imports up 10.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $108.2bn. On Thursday, China releases its first-quarter GDP. We’re currently looking for growth to slow to 4.7% YoY in the January-March period, down from 5.0% in the fourth quarter. China’s monthly activity data and 70-city housing prices will be released on Thursday. Other than industrial production, which we expect to grow around 5.5% YoY, economic activity data is likely to remain rather soft in March. Retail sales are projected to slow to 2.5% YoY, while fixed‑asset investment is expected to remain subdued at around 1.9% YoY year‑to‑date. Housing prices are expected to stay in negative territory, but any moderation in the downturn would be an encouraging sign.
Key events in Asia next week
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
