Resume på dansk af Goldman analyse:
Amerikanske aktier havde i sidste uge deres stærkeste uge siden maj 2025, drevet af et bredt short-covering-rally, hvor især teknologi trak markedet højere. S&P 500 og Nasdaq nåede nye all-time highs, mens Nasdaq afsluttede en usædvanlig stærk periode med 13 sammenhængende stigningsdage. Rallyet omfattede også small caps, hjulpet af et markant fald i olieprisen og lempeligere finansielle forhold.
De vigtigste pointer
- Makro og geopolitik: Den vigtigste driver er afspænding i Mellemøsten. Lavere oliepriser og udsigt til genåbning af Hormuzstrædet har forbedret risikosentimentet og støttet især forbrugs- og transportaktier. Samtidig peger relativt robuste amerikanske nøgletal og afdæmpet inflation på en fortsat modstandsdygtig økonomi.
- Flows: Goldman peger på, at både hedgefonde og kapitalforvaltere netto købte aktier i sidste uge. Bevægelsen var i høj grad drevet af lukning af makro-shorts, især via ETF’er, kombineret med ny risikotagning i tech og AI-relaterede aktier. Systematiske investorer og CTA’er har også været store købere.
- Positionering: Markedet er sårbart. Gross leverage hos hedgefonde er meget høj, mens net leverage stadig er lav. Det betyder, at markedet både kan presses højere af yderligere short squeezes, men også er modtageligt for et hurtigt tilbageslag.
- Markedsbredde: Selvom S&P 500 er steget kraftigt fra martsbunden, er rallyet smalt. Informationsteknologi og kommunikationsservice står for omkring 70 % af opsvinget, og kun en fjerdedel af S&P 500-selskaberne ligger tæt på deres 52-ugers top.
- Regnskaber: De første amerikanske regnskaber, især fra bankerne, viser fortsat solide fundamentaler, men kursreaktionerne har været blandede. Uden for finans var fokus blandt andet på TSMC og Netflix.
- Risikovurdering: Goldman ser stigende risiko for, at rallyet enten er ved at blive overstrakt eller udvikler sig til en “bull trap”. Positionerings- og sentimentmedvind er i høj grad brugt op, og der er risiko for, at månedsskifte-flow sender penge fra aktier til obligationer.
- EPS-revisioner: En vigtig støtte for rallyet har været opjusteringer af indtjeningsforventningerne for 2026-2027. Men også her er billedet smalt: Energi og IT står næsten alene for løftet, og få selskaber – særligt Micron og Exxon – forklarer en stor del af opjusteringerne.
- AI som upside-case: Goldman ser fortsat AI-investeringer som den væsentligste opadgående risiko for indtjeningen. Det gælder både hardware, software og relaterede infrastrukturselskaber.
- Sektor- og aktietemaer: Tech/TMT er klart mest efterspurgt. Goldman fremhæver også sundhed, software og autonome køretøjer som centrale temaer. Inden for software er banken især positiv på blandt andet CRM, CRWD, GWRE, IOT og RBRK.
Konklusion
Hovedbudskabet er, at markedet fortsat løftes af geopolitisk afspænding, lavere oliepris, short covering og AI-optimisme. Men rallyet er smalt, positioneringen er skæv, og flere hos Goldman advarer om, at markedet nu er modent til en korrektion, selv om et nyt squeeze højere endnu ikke kan udelukkes.
——————————
Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs
Macro/Geopolitics: still at the fore with primary catalyst remaining the de-escalation in the Middle East with Oil/Commods prices negative correlation vs Equities/risk-assets driving the moves as the fragile but holding ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, alongside the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial traffic, continued into Friday. As a result, the market interpreted the WTI selloff as providing an immediate tailwind to consumer discretionary and transport sectors. Meanwhile, mostly benign macro data reads including a cooler-than-expected March PPI (+0.1% vs. +0.5% consensus) and robust beats in the Empire State and Philly Fed indices suggest that the underlying U.S. economy remains resilient vs as headline inflation pressures starting to subside.
Flows: According to Goldman’s execution team, asset managers and HFs finished net buyers, driven by macro short covering (almost entirely ETF shorts), and re-risking in tech. HFs are currently transitioning from covering their macro short hedges to buying single stocks long. It still feels like there is still real belief in another leg higher in AI. Most focus is on energy / industrials / hardware suppliers (LNG, ET, LGN, AMAT, MRVL etc). Most non-AI interest on long side is centering around HC. Plenty of covering and then reshoring of software. Long Onlies continue to be passive buyers on Goldman’s desk with high concentration in supercap tech. Furthermore, there is still sizeable activity from Systematic/Quants as CTAs bought over $86 billion of global equities in the past week alone. This community has pivoted from being $30 billion short to $10 billion long S&P 500 in a matter of days. While the “highest velocity” of this demand may now be in the rearview, we previously noted that Goldman estimates systematic buyers could still purchase an additional $23bn this week (vs $33bn last week)
Positioning/Prime: Despite the record highs, Goldman’s John Flood noted on Friday: “Today’s leg higher in the S&P 500 is starting to feel like a bit much… Bottom line gross leverage is still too high and net leverage is too low… AKA the perfect storm for the right tail risk we have seen over the last 2 weeks. The market is now properly primed for a pullback next week.” Goldman’s Prime Brokerage data confirms this divergence: Overall book Gross Leverage sits at 310% (98th percentile 5-year), while Net Leverage is only at 75% (21st percentile 1-year). Hedge funds are currently in the middle of a transition, covering macro short hedges and rotating into single-stock longs, particularly in Global TMT ( i.e. Tech + Comm Services) by far the most $ net bought sectors last week as they were net bought in every major region, driven by long buys and to a lesser extent short covers (more in HF paragraph below).
Earnings: first week of US Earnings accounted for ~8% of SPX market cap was mostly focused on Banks continuing to display strong fundamental trends but mixed stock performance on T+1 including: JPM +0.1% trimmed its FY26 NII guidance, WFC (-4.7%) was hit by softness in both fees and NII, C +6.3% reported stronger NII and fee growth, BAC +2.6% beat with IB fees and equity trading a bright spot. GS +2% beat but a FICC miss was in focus, while MS +6.3% posted standout FICC results. Other key bank takeaways included executives downplaying private credit risks, highlighting resilient consumer spend, and noted they have not seen much impact from geopolitical turmoil but could start impact inflation and uncertainty if it goes on. Outside of Fins earnings, investors focused on TSM (flat) which beat for Q1 and guided Q2 sales ahead of consensus while NFLX (-5.5%) fell as revenue growth and EPS guidance disappointed and cofounder Hastings to exit board.
Risk: Goldman’s Rich Privo weighs up the risk of a bull trap/melt higher vs positioning/sentiment in his latest views: “Last leg higher was violent, and clearly plenty of folk in my bearish camp last week was the tell this rally wasn’t over. Imagine I’m getting far less high five replies today for sticking with the cautious view. Glass half full the economy holding up (sharp PC1 bounce) and markets largely looking through the conflict. Not obvious if this is a bull trap (I’m leaning that way) or the start of a broader AI-driven breakout/we are on the cusp of massive bull market driven by the investment economy carrying on? The key shift: positioning and sentiment tailwinds are largely exhausted. Earnings will help, but risk being backward looking. Into month-end, there’s likely a meaningful rebalance out of equities into bonds. Watch credit as the leading indicator, and note that rates haven’t confirmed this rally.”
- The recent S&P rally has been supported by a 3% increase in consensus EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027. Despite the rally, the current P/E multiple of 21x is actually 5% lower than in January 2026. The Energy and IT sectors have been the sole drivers of these positive revisions, while the median S&P 500 company has seen stagnant EPS estimates. Specifically, Micron and Exxon Mobil alone account for over 60% of the total upward revision since the conflict began.
- Market breadth has deteriorated to levels not seen since the Dot Com bubble or mid-2023, reflecting the high concentration of earnings growth. Despite the S&P 500 rallying 12% from its March lows, the rally has primarily tracked sectors with the strongest revisions. A potential shift is on the horizon as the geopolitical outlook improves. For instance, news regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has already sparked outperformance in cyclically sensitive areas like small-caps and consumer firms.
- On the margins front, some S&P 500 profit margin expansion is likely this year, but current consensus estimates appear unrealistically high, as is typically the case. The team expect roughly 90 bp of S&P 500 net profit margin expansion this year, from 12% to 13%, driven primarily by the strength of the largest Technology stocks. However, consensus forecasts also point to profit margins for the median S&P 500 stock rising by roughly 20 bp in 2026 and 87 bp through 2027. This increase appears unlikely. Inflated margin estimates are usually the cause of over-optimistic consensus earnings estimates at this point of the year. Input cost pressures are the key downside risk to corporate profit margins
- AI investment spending remains the upside risk to EPS, with the rapid recent growth rates of AI model improvement and private AI company revenues indicate the uncertainty inherent in any forecasts related to AI and highlight the potential for larger near-term gains than the team currently forecast.
- Performance: The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate rose +2.06% between 4/10 and 4/17 (vs MSCI World TR +2.83%), driven by beta of +1.97% and alpha of +0.09% on the back of long side gains. The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate rose +0.05% during the same period, driven by alpha of +0.09% on the back of long side gains, partially offset by beta of -0.04%.
- Leverage: Overall book Gross leverage -0.5 pts to 310.1% (92 nd percentile 1-year) and Net leverage +1.9 pts to 75.2% (22 nd percentile 1-year). Overall book L/S ratio +1.4% to 1.641 (10th percentile 1-year). Fundamental L/S Gross leverage +0.3 pts to 212.0% (73rd percentile 1-year) and Net leverage +2.3 pts to 55.8% (67th percentile 1-year).
- Flows: Global equities were net bought for a 2nd straight week (+1.1 SDs 1-year), driven entirely by long buys. All major regions (sans North America) were net bought, led in $ terms by Europe and EM Asia. Macro Products were net bought for a 3rd straight week, driven almost entirely by long buys, while Single Stocks saw little net activity, with short covers offsetting long sales. Info Tech, Comm Svcs, and Health Care were the most $ net bought global sectors, while Cons Disc, Industrials, and Materials were the most net sold.
- TMT in Focus: Global TMT sectors (Info Tech + Comm Svcs) were by far the most $ net bought sectors this week as they were net bought in every major region, driven by long buys and to a lesser extent short covers (2.1 to 1). Info Tech was net bought for the first time 5 weeks, driven by long buys and to a lesser extent short covers (4.0 to 1). Most subsectors were net bought, led in $ terms by Semis & Semi Equip, Electronic Equip, and Software. Comm Svcs saw the largest % net buying in 5 months, driven by a roughly equal amount of long buys and short covers. Global TMT Gross/Net exposures (as a % of the global Prime Book) now stand at 28.3%/34.0%, which are both 5-year highs.
- The pace of autonomous technology commercialization has accelerated, and the team now estimate that the AV robotaxi market in the US will reach $19 bn in 2030, up from $7 bn prior, and they introduce our 2035 forecast of $48 bn. When including global markets, we estimate that the robotaxi market in 2035 could be ~$415 bn.
- The team now estimate that revenue associated with the industry could reach approximately $2 trillion in 2035 comprised of hardware sales (e.g. robotaxis, consumer L3-L5 vehicles, AV trucks, and delivery bots) and software/digital services (e.g. robotaxi and AV trucking services, and consumer autonomous subscriptions for L3-L5). when focusing more specifically on the piece of this market attributable to AI (e.g. revenue for virtual driver technology in robotaxis and AV trucks, they estimate that the market will be approximately $300 bn in 2035.
- They estimate the economic size that could potentially be disrupted in the US is ~$440 bn. There are already signs of change, with Waymo’s share in SF reaching 30%, 20 months after being fully launched (per Yipit), and their base case view is for 5% cannibalization of UCAN rideshare gross bookings from AVs (and 16% in a bear case) by 2030. However, in a bear case scenario in the long-term where all miles traveled use AV rideshare, they estimate that US SAAR could be 3-6 mn units lower.
- They highlight GOOGL, TSLA, UBER, AUR, AMZN, Pony AI, RIVN, MBLY, LYFT, TEL, Hesai, XPeng, and Volvo Group as stocks in GS coverage that are beneficiaries of AVs and/or where we believe investor concerns about risks from AVs are overdone. However, there are mixed implications for traditional auto OEMs, with risks to unit and/or profit share if newer tech companies disrupt the market for personal transportation, but also potential opportunities tied to software and digital services.
- Gabriela and team met with 30 private companies and 10 public companies on their various field trips/conferences, and ended up more convicted in the Software TAM: companies are moving to sell units of labor or productivity, which allow them to capture more budget; and AI Natives are selling into the white space between traditional SaaS silos. As the frontier labs set new highs on benchmarking and associated inference costs, the industry is countering by redistributing value throughout the stack.
- They also note that AI Natives are not competing head-on with SaaS incumbents, they are winning by occupying the white space between them. Real enterprise work does not live inside a single application, it cuts across CRM, OMS, ticketing, logistics, payments, and bespoke infrastructure. This dynamic may weaken two of SaaS’ most-cited moats: domain experience & data – conversations with Sierra and Serval highlighted the domain experience moat is less durable than advertised, as incumbents rarely have the right to cross functional domain knowledge.
- On a single stock level, they are more positive on CRM (more thoughtful agentic strategy and upcoming launch of dev tools); CRWD (several modules seeing better demand); GWRE (AI accelerating cloud conversions and purely TAM expansive); IOT (ROI-driven demand, data / AI differentiation); RBRK (Agent Cloud / Identity broadening the story; expanding resilience needs).
Intro-pris i 3 måneder
Få unik indsigt i de vigtigste erhvervsbegivenheder og dybdegående analyser, så du som investor, rådgiver og topleder kan handle proaktivt på.
- Fuld adgang til ugebrev.dk
- Nyhedsmails med daglige opdateringer
- Ingen binding
199 kr./måned
Normalpris 349 kr./måned
199 kr./md. de første tre måneder,
herefter 349 kr./md.
Allerede abonnent? Log ind her
