Fra Danske Bank:
Emilie Herbo, [email protected] , Assistant Analyst
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In the euro area, the April flash PMI report is released, a key input ahead of the ECB meeting. We expect the manufacturing PMI to show a steep decline from 51.6 to 49.6, driven by higher energy prices. The surprise increase in the headline index in March was largely due to longer delivery times, which pose an upward risk to the headline number again. As such, monitoring the output sub-component will be crucial. The services PMI fell more than expected in March to 50.2 and we expect it to remain at same level in April, as services are less directly hit than manufacturing. However, the uncertainty of the index is unusually high, so interpretation should be more cautious than usual. The price components will be more important than usual.
From the US and UK, the flash April PMIs will also provide key insights ahead of next week’s central bank meetings. In the US, attention will centre on whether manufacturing PMI is sustained around March’s strong print at 52.4. In the UK, March’s composite PMI fell sharply to 51.0, reflecting challenges from surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions. These reports will offer a timely view of the Middle East conflict’s impact on economic activity.
In Sweden, we have our eyes on Anna Seim, a relative hawk, giving a speech at 08:00 CET – a summary of the speech will be published on the website.
Overnight in Japan, the national March CPI is released. We are not likely to see a Japanese inflation surge, as opposed to the global trend. Tokyo headline inflation even suggests a modest decline, as government subsidies are keeping gasoline prices close to a price of USD1/litre. Consensus is pointing to a modest increase, though, to 1.8% for CPI inflation excluding fresh food.
Economic calendar
In Japan, the April Composite PMI declined slightly to 52.4 from 53.0, as a strong rise in Manufacturing PMI to 54.9 (prior: 51.6) was offset by a slowdown in Services PMI to 51.2 (prior: 53.4). Notably, factory output recorded its strongest increase since February 2014, driven by manufacturers ramping up production amid concerns over potential future supply shortages linked to the war in the Middle East.
In the oil space, Brent crude rose above USD100/bbl as talks between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz seem to have yet to start, with the two sides remaining far apart. Polymarket investors now see a 40% chance of traffic normalising before the end of May, down from 60% earlier in the day. The US kept the pace of selling of strategic reserves at 600kb/d last week, which is still well below peak selling levels in 2022. Hence, more support to global oil supply could still come from this side over the coming weeks.
In Sweden, unemployment rose to 9.2% in March, but should be interpreted with caution, as Statistics Sweden noted the rate was likely overestimated. Monthly numbers are very volatile, and the volatility has increased in recent years. Looking at the full quarter, outcomes were fairly well in line with our forecast. Employment rose by 0.3% q/q (forecast 0.4%) and the unemployment rate held steady at 8.6%. The overall picture on the Swedish labour market is that it has improved, but the rate of improvement has declined. Indicators have worsened recently, pointing to unchanged employment in the near term. For the Riksbank, inflation risks are the focal point, but on the margin, the labour market data favours a cautious approach.
In the UK, CPI inflation for March came in as a mixed bag with services a touch higher than expected at 4.5% y/y (cons: 4.3%, prior: 4.3%), while core was lower than expected at 3.1% y/y (cons: 3.2%, prior: 3.2%). It remains too early to assess whether this will lead to broader second-round effects, which the Bank of England has identified as a key concern. During its March meeting, the Bank highlighted the increased risk of domestic inflationary pressures driven by second-round effects in wage and price-setting.
The European Commission revealed its energy bill “AccelerateEU” aimed at tackling higher energy costs from the war in Iran. The package does not contain new funding, limiting its near-term impact. It promotes tax cuts and levies for low-income households and allows member states to implement temporary emergency measures to support the most exposed sectors. This raises the likelihood of more fiscal support from individual governments, larger public deficits, and possibly untargeted fiscal easing measures, which could lead to further ECB hikes.
In Denmark, April consumer confidence dropped from -13.8 in March to -18.6, reflecting rising energy prices and concerns over the ongoing conflict in Iran. Inflation expectations surged to their highest since early 2022, driven by fears of prolonged energy price increases. Despite solid wage growth and improved disposable incomes from tax cuts and higher benefits, uncertainty surrounding inflation and energy prices continues to weigh on consumer spending, posing challenges for domestic growth.
Equities: Equity markets in the US performed strongly on the open yesterday, without Europe following suit. While tech and banks were in either side of the league table, that alone does not provide a fully satisfactory explanation for the divergence. Global equities were up 0.6%, with S&P500 rising 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.6%, Russell2000 0.7% higher and Stoxx600 down 0.4%. Overnight, futures are lower, as well as Asian markets.
FI and FX: Markets open on a weak foot with headlines from a locked-in stand-off over the SOH dominating the news. Asian equities are down while US treasuries rise a couple of basis points this morning and EUR/USD falls back below 1.1700. Oil prices climb further with a barrel of brent trading close to USD 104. News from the Middle East will continuously dominate market movements, but PMI releases, and their price components in particular, might attract some attention. I Norway the SBB releases figures for wage growth and industrial confidence and the Swedish Riksbank’s Anna Seim gives a speech at CET 08:00.
See also our in-depth FI and FX morning comment *
Reading the Markets Denmark – Historic top in EUR/DKK , 23 April
Market Guide – 22 April 2026, 22 April
Yield Outlook – Tough decisions ahead for central banks , 21 April
Reading the Markets USD – Steady EUR/USD as SOH status in doubt , 21 April
FX Forecast Update – USD erases war-fuelled gains as downtrend resumes, 17 April
Reading the Markets Norway – Stagflation risks: look for Red-Green and 2s10s bullish steepeners, 17 April
Report completed: 23 April 2026, 07:00 CEST
Report first disseminated: 23 April 2026, 07:30 CEST
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Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
