Årets største regnskabsdag: Preview Q1-analyser på Amazon, Meta, Alphabet og Microsoft

Uddrag fra Goldman, JP Morgan og Zerohedge

Kort dansk resume

Gennemgangen et er AI-investeringer og capex. Ifølge Goldman er aktiemarkedet i øjeblikket drevet af én ting: hvor meget de store techselskaber vil bruge på AI-infrastruktur. Markedet forventer allerede, at Amazon, Microsoft, Meta og Alphabet tilsammen vil investere omkring 600 mia. dollar i 2026 og over 800 mia. dollar i 2027. Problemet er, at næsten hele deres frie cash flow i stigende grad går til capex, og at nogle selskaber, især Meta, kan få presset cash flow.

Investorerne vil derfor især holde øje med, om selskaberne hæver capex-guidance yderligere. Hvis capex ikke stiger, kan det blive tolket negativt, fordi flad capex i et miljø med stigende inputomkostninger reelt kan ligne en opbremsning i AI-fortællingen. Omvendt er højere capex heller ikke entydigt positivt for hyperscalernes aktionærer, fordi afkastet på investeringerne stadig er uklart.

Positioneringen i de store techaktier beskrives som meget høj efter en kraftig kursstigning i april. Goldman peger på, at megacap-tech gik fra teknisk oversolgt til overkøbt på få uger, drevet af både tekniske flows og fornyet optimisme omkring AI. Det betyder, at forventningerne til regnskaberne er høje, og at aktierne kan få svært ved at blive belønnet, selv ved solide tal.

De vigtigste nøgletal og forventninger:

Alphabet/Google: Markedet forventer stærk vækst i Search og Google Cloud. Goldman vurderer, at aktien er den mest crowded long blandt de store techaktier. Cloud-vækst tæt på 60 pct. og Search-vækst i high-teens er centrale pejlemærker.

Amazon: Fokus er især på AWS, hvor investorerne forventer omkring 30 pct. vækst. JPM er positiv og ser Amazon som en favorit, blandt andet fordi Andy Jassys seneste aktionærbrev har styrket tilliden til AI- og capex-strategien.

Meta: Stemningen er blevet mere positiv efter tegn på fremgang i AI-strategien. Fokus bliver på annoncevækst, Q2-guidance, omkostninger og om selskabet kan undgå at hæve capex- og udgiftsguidance yderligere.

Microsoft: Aktien beskrives som relativt upopulær blandt hedgefonde trods den seneste kursstigning. De vigtigste punkter er Azure-vækst på omkring 38 pct., Microsoft 365-vækst og især kommentarer om capex i regnskabsåret 2027.

Apple: Apple er mindre central i AI-handlen og mere defensivt positioneret. Fokus bliver på iPhone-salg, Services-vækst, bruttomarginer, Kina, komponentomkostninger, Apple Intelligence og mulig CEO-overgang.

Samlet set er konklusionen, at regnskaberne ikke kun handler om indtjening, men om hvorvidt de store teknologiselskaber kan opretholde AI-narrativet. Markedet vil både kræve stærk vækst, fortsatte investeringer og samtidig tegn på, at investeringerne på sigt kan give et acceptabelt afkast. Risikoen er, at forventningerne allerede er så høje, at selv gode regnskaber kan føre til “sell the news”-reaktioner.

The biggest day of April, if not the entire first half of 2026, is almost here: tomorrow we have not only the Fed  but also earnings from 4 of the Mag 7 names – Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet – which together account for 18% of S&P market cap.

For those who missed it, we published a big picture take yesterday, where we quoted Goldman Delta One head Rich Privorotsky who said that it really all depends on Mag 7 capex: “equities are being driven by one thing…AI spend.” He thinks that in a bizarre twist in what many claim is a resource-constrained industry, it is actually demand that is artificially inflated as a result of “Token Maxxxing” which has emerged as the framing, as engineering teams are effectively competing to consume as much compute as possible, with a real fear that under spending = career risk. To Privorotsky that creates a perverse incentive to spend aggressively, even inefficiently. Meanwhile supply constraints are also seemingly everywhere: power, CPUs, GPUs, copper, even engineers. Ignoring the bottlenecks, the market is extrapolating the upside indefinitely forward: more tokens, more intelligence, eventual AGI… or at least was until yesterday’s WSJ report on OpenAI missing revenue and user bogeys and getting nervous about overspending, slammed the brakes on AI capex enthusiasm.

As for this week’s earnings, the Delta One head writes that viewed through a Capex lens, consensus already has Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet spending an enormous $600bn across them in 2026, rising above $800 billion in 2027. By this point virtually all free cash flow among the Mag 7 will go just to paying for capex, with many of the companies – especially Meta – no longer cash flow positive.

Going back to investor expectations, for Goldman’s Privorotsky the key question isn’t whether demand is strong – it clearly is – but whether capex goes even higher? As he says, “If it doesn’t, that’s a problem for the narrative…because flat capex in a world of rising input costs is effectively a slowdown.”

More importantly, he noted that the problem is for the shareholders of the hyperscalers: while semi stocks are clearly infatuated with capex growth (of which they are direct recipients) – understandbly, for the past few quarters, hyperscalers shareholders have not rewarded capex increases, especially since the return on investment still remains elusive. He wraps it up as follows“Last week we heard form the suppliers, the spenders have a more muddied narrative.”

* * * 

With all that in mind, let’s take a closer look at tomorrow’s main event, when we get earnings from GOOGL (6% of S&P), MSFT (5% of S&P), AMZN (4%), and META (2.5%) all reporting after the close, and AAPL (6%) reporting Thurs.

While all attention was going to be on earnings regardless, in light of the market wobble today (which Goldman’s trading desks chalks up to a technical burn off of the Momentum chase / OpenAI WSJ story / sell-the-news earnings reactions), the market will be closely watching this group of prints even closer, and looking for the Generals to set the tone for broader market trading and risk appetite into May.

High Level Positioning/Flows

Over a dizzying 13 trading session stretch to start March, megacap tech flipped from technically oversold territory to technically overbought (the RSI of Goldman’s Megacap basket was sub-30 on March 30, and touched an overbought 74 three weeks later on 4/17).

The sharp rerating higher was part technical (massive CTA index buying which we said would kick in on any good news such as the Trump ceasefire / institutional covering of Macro hedges), and part fundamental  (conviction in AI trade was clearly reinvigorated in April, with AMZN’s shareholder letter, INTC’s print & guide, another round of high profile circular-financing partnerships announced, increasing adoption rates, confirmation of supply bottlenecks, geopolitical backdrop improvement, all among the many reasons for cited for the AI trade regaining its footing).

Additionally, recent Goldman desk flows across the Mag7s have skewed better to buy, with demand in AMZN (which accelerated post the Jassy letter) and  MSFT (felt like Long Onlies managing Underweights as the stock moved off the lows) standing out above the rest.

Given the sharp rallies, recent inflows, broadly high expectations, and the difficulty of getting paid (at least on a t+1 basis) around other popular TMT longs so far this quarter (see: ASML, TSM, NFLX, SPOT, Hynix etc), Goldman TMT trader Peter Bartlett writes that it doesn’t feel that controversial to say the positioning bar, in aggregate across the reporting Megas, feels very high.

What the market will be looking for from the group?

Besides details on the latest capex guidance, the market will look for strong top line beats (widely expected, but the market will look for this as more evidence of surging demand for compute & AI applications) paired with ongoing robust AI spending & investing. The big swing factor will be to what extent top-line upside flows through to the bottom line. Did we mention capex? Look for MSFT’s CapEx commentary to be particularly interesting given timing of their fiscal year (will likely comment on FY27), which could help shape how investors view the trajectory of hyperscaler spending into ’27.

Single-Stock Need-to-know

According to JPM Equity Trader Brian Heavey, positioning (most to least crowded) is: AMZN, META, GOOG, APPL, and then MSFT.

• On AMZN, the main point is AWS +30%.
• On META, Q2 rev guide for $61bn, +28.5% YoY and +8% QoQ assuming Q1 prints $56.5bn.
• On GOOG, Search +18%, GCP approaching 60%.
• On MSFT, Azure +38% and guide for statis in the growth rate (maybe ~39%).

Of the names listed above, Heavey’s favorite of these names is AMZN, pointing to Jassy’s letter on capex spending helping sentiment.

Goldman’s desk estimates positioning in a slightly different order: instead of AMZN in the top position as per JPM, Goldman sees GOOGL as the most crowded long. Here are the key bogeys from the Goldman trading desk:

• GOOGL – Positioning 9.5 / 10, well-owned by most (although pace of new inflows seems to have slowed). Expectations have crept higher, GCP growth now expected to be closer to be high-50s / 60% (vs street at mid 50s) with Search in the high-teens (vs goldman est at 17.5%), expected to reiterate CapEx. Options implying a 5% move.
• AMZN – Positioning 8.5 / 10, with a recent “up arrow” to that number given wave of inflows we’ve observed in recent weeks.   On AWS, expectations now higher with the bogey closer to ~30%+ (with GIR at 26% y/y). Commentary on Tranium and AI partnerships will also be closely watched. Options implying a 7% move.
• META – Positioning 7.5 / 10, sentiment has improved over last quarter (off a lower base) with MuseSpark release helping to drive recovery in sentiment (demonstrated tangible progress on AI strategy). Points of focus will be Opex clarity (investors hoping for sings of operating leverage) and Ads outlook into 2Q (magnitude of decel?). Options implying a 6.5% move.
• AAPL – Positioning 7/ 10, with more apathy around the stock of late (AAPL largely on sidelines of AI trade, has traded with more defensive qualities). Strength is expected, driven by Services (expected to grow 13-14% YoY) and continued strength from iPhone 17 lineup. Other focal points: component cost impact, China recovery, Apple Intelligence, CEO transition. Options only implying a 3% move post print
• MSFT – Positioning 5.5 / 10, while we’ve seen recent buying (has felt more like “risk mgmt.” style covering of Underweights), sentiment feels like it remains deeply bearish (particularly among HF community ).  On Azure, expected to print roughly stable growth in quarter and guide (e.g. high-30s y/y cc). Commentary on CoPilot (M365) and on Capex will be in focus (esp re: FY27 trajectory). Options implying a 6.5% move.

Goldman Prime Data: GS Prime data shows L/S Ratio across Mag 7 in the 88% percentile on a 3 year look back  

Finally, a detailed company by company breakdown, courtesy of JPMorgan:

AMZN (JPM OW, $280 PT. 

• SENTIMENT – Bullish, But Concerns Remain. Conversations heavily AWS-skewed w/investor focus on degree of acceleration & cloud $ re-capture driven by core workloads, AI, & new partnerships. Still, some concerns remain on broader AI positioning/strategy, Trainium traction, & gap to Azure/Google Cloud growth. Strong Stores execution expected, with N. America margin expansion. But higher fuel costs raise questions on consumer demand & operating margins. Frequent Question: If everyone expects big AWS growth and has the same thesis, what breaks it out?
• ANALYST VIEW – Bullish, Remains a Best Idea. We raised AWS numbers in late March on core cloud growth & ramping AI contribution from Anthropic/Project Rainier, OpenAI, & Trainium. N. America op margin expansion, solid AWS margins, & cost discipline bolster profits, while higher diesel costs, FX, & investments in Leo, quick commerce, & int’l pricing could weigh on OI NT. JPM thinks outsized AWS growth & shift from AI laggard to leader breaks out the shares, w/automation & Stores margins the next driver. Valuation attractive on GAAP P/E.
• KEY METRICS – Net Sales. Guide $173.5B-$178.5B; Consensus $177B; JPMe $179B (+13.5% FXN); Buyside Bar: $178B-$179B, w/FX slightly less favorable vs. 4Q earnings. AWS Growth. Consensus +25%; JPMe +29%; Buyside Bar: +29%-30% Operating Income. Guide $16.5B-$21.5B; Consensus $20.7B; JPMe $20.6B (11.5% margin); Buyside Bar: $21B-$22B

GOOG (JPM OW, $395 PT. Full note is here)

• SENTIMENT – Positive, but tempered. GOOG/L is well-owned & liked w/bullishness around leading AI stack, Search growth, Cloud acceleration, & BS strength to navigate heavy infra buildout. But after a big run, it’s been source of funds toward META & broadening. Some concerns on LLM leapfrogging & BW/VR-trained models, OpenAI advertising, & ongoing AI Search transition. Valuation often framed at ~25x $14-$15 in 2027 GAAP EPS. Frequent Question: What’s the bear case?
• ANALYST VIEW – Bullish, remains our favorite idea. Strongest AI stack & Gemini product infusion. Industry checks positive around Search & Cloud. AI expansionary to search w/increased queries & coverage. Gemini features & tech will continue to be pulled into Google search. Strong Cloud growth acceleration on AI-driven demand & $240B backlog. Entering heavier product season w/Google Cloud Next, I/O, Marketing Live over next 5+ weeks. Gemini 4 preview? OpenAI pivot to enterprise positive for Google. We think there’s upside to GOOG/L estimates & multiple.
• KEY METRICS – Search: JPMe +18% reported (+14% FXN) vs. Buyside Bar 18%+. YouTube Ads: JPMe +15% reported (+11% FXN) vs. Buyside Bar 12%-13%. Cloud: JPMe +61% reported (+55% FXN) vs. Buyside Bar High 50s-60%. Alphabet Revenue: JPMe +18% FXHN vs. Buyside Bar 18%+. Alphabet OI Margin: JPMe 34.9% vs. Buyside Bar 34%-35%

META (JPM OW $825 PT. 

• SENTIMENT – Increasingly bullish. Heavy expenses & capex, anticipated model delays, & social media legal decisions have weighed. But revenue growth remains very strong & Muse Spark has put Meta back in the LLM conversation w/the AI product path taking shape across Meta AI, agents, & commerce. Investors are still likely getting onsides here as Meta has larger, increasingly capable models in development.
• ANALYST VIEW – Encouraged by sooner-than-expected initial MSL model & anticipating strong 1Q results. AI ad improvements across content recommendations, ranking, retrieval, & automation should drive revenue strength. We still want to see more on AI product path on the 1Q call. No increase to 2026 guides for total expenses ($162B-$169B) & capex ($115B-$135B) would be positive. Valuation attractive on GAAP P/E.
• KEY METRICS – 26Q1: Revenue. Guide $53.5B-$56.5B; Consensus $55.4B; JPMe $56.0B (+32% reported, +28% FXN); Buyside Bar: $57B+, +35% reported w/FX slightly less favorable vs. 4Q earnings. Operating Inc. Consensus $19.4B; JPMe $19.0B (34.0% margin).
  • 26Q2: Revenue. Consensus $59.6B; JPMe $60.0B (+26% reported, +24% FXN); Buyside Bar: $58B-$61B guide (+22%-28% reported, +22%-28% FXN). Operating Inc. Consensus $20.8B; JPMe $19.4B (32.3% margin)

MSFT (JPM OW, $550 PT )

• SENTIMENT – MSFT enters earnings season relatively unloved and (funding) shorted. Yes, the stock has rallied nearly +20% over the past 3 weeks, but MSFT remains stuck between a rock (OpenAI) and a hard place (SaaS). They are going to need one of their two main KPIs, Azure or M365 Commercial Cloud, to beat expectations in order to keep the party going. All told, the bar feels low-ish.
• KEY METRICS – 26Q3: Azure +38% YoY is consensus. MS 365 Commercial Cloud Revenue Growth +15% YoY.
  • 26Q4: Azure +37% – +38% YoY vs. +35% consensus. MS 365 Commercial Cloud Revenue Growth +14% – +15% YoY.
  • 2027: Capex buyside bar is ~$190bn for FY27 but MSFT may only provide a qualitative assessment, such as “capex will increase meaningfully next year”.

AAPL (JPM OW, $325 PT. 

• SENTIMENT – The upcoming print will largely be focused on investors looking for proof around Apple’s positioning to navigate the memory cycle related cost headwinds, with investors already aware of the company’s position in securing supply to deliver better outcomes on revenue through share gains relative to other hardware OEMs, as well as the (potential) implications on strategic direction with the upcoming change in leadership following the recent announcement
• ANALYST VIEW – Our expectations for March-Q (F2Q) earnings include beats on revenue relative to the telegraphed outlook, helped by both better demand for iPhones (also helped by access to memory which has constrained other OEMs) as well as better demand for Macs, including with the recent release of MacBook Neo. With momentum continuing into June-Q (F3Q), we expect the revenue outlook for F3Q to also deliver upside to sell-side consensus expectations, including with an outlook likely to be shared for low double-digit revenue growth. While revenue upside will drive upside to sell-side consensus estimates, it will likely be less of a surprise to buy-side expectations, and instead investors will focus on gross margin delivery and guidance to evaluate the resilience of margins in the face of unprecedented memory headwinds.
• KEY METRICS – 26Q2: Total revenue of $112.7bn vs. $109.6bn consensus. EPS $2.05 vs. $1.96 consensus. Product revenues of $82.3bn vs. $78.8bn consensus. iPhone $59.5bn vs. $56.7bn consensus or +27% YoY. Services $30.4bn in-line with consensus. Gross Margins 48.5% vs. 48.4% consensus with guide 48% – 49%.
  • 26Q3: Total revenue of $105.1bn vs. $102.3bn consensus. EPS $1.78 vs. $1.75 consensus. iPhone $50.1bn vs. $47.7bn consensus. Services $31.3bn +14% YoY vs. $31.0bn consensus. Gross Margins 47.6% vs. 47.7% consensus.