Resume af teksten:
Kevin Warsh er på vej mod at blive bekræftet som ny formand for Federal Reserve efter Justitsministeriets beslutning om at afslutte undersøgelsen mod Jerome Powell. Warsh forventes at blive stadfæstet inden det næste møde i Federal Open Market Committee i juni. Han er kendt for sine holdninger til at begrænse brugen af kvantitativ lempelse og ønsker at reducere brugen af forward guidance.
AI påvirker jobmarkedet, med tab af job inden for højrisiko-industrier og vækst inden for roller, hvor AI supplerer menneskelig arbejdskraft. Goldman Sachs Research har beregnet, at AI reducerede den månedlige jobvækst med netto 16.000 job i USA det seneste år.
Private kreditsektoren, der er vokset til over 2,5 billioner dollars i aktiver, oplever tilbagetrækningsproblemer i detailkanaler, men de fleste aktiver forbliver i institutionelle fonde uden tilsvarende problemer.
Teknologigiganter rapporterede generelt stærke indtægter, der understøtter AI-handel. Der er dog bekymringer over stigninger i oliepriser og renteniveauer, men de primære drivkræfter for AI-forretningen vurderes stadig som robuste.
Autonome køretøjers industri forventes at vokse hurtigt og nå en omsætning på omkring 2 billioner dollars i 2035. Markedet for robotaxier og autonome lastbiler vil vokse betydeligt, drevet af faldende omkostninger og øget teknologiimplementering.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, is on the path to confirmation after the Justice Department announced that it would drop its investigation of the current Fed chair Jerome Powell. Warsh is expected to be confirmed as the new chair ahead of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Rob Kaplan, Goldman Sachs vice chairman and former Dallas Fed president, outlines his expectations for Warsh’s leadership of the Fed on a recent episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges : Warsh is best known for his views on the Fed’s balance sheet. In particular, he believes “the bar should be very high for using quantitative easing,” Kaplan says. He is also expected to recommend scaling back the use of forward guidance by Fed officials. For example, he has been critical of the dot plot, an anonymous plot showing the FOMC members’ projections for the appropriate future level of the Fed’s key short-term policy rate. Warsh has advanced the use of alternatives to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. In his confirmation hearing, he mentioned the Dallas Trimmed Mean—a gauge that strips out extreme price moves in either direction. Kaplan stresses the need to use a variety of inflation measures, especially during an oil price spike, when what starts as a price rise in a single area “ends up affecting 20 or 30 items.” While Warsh may seem to lean dovish personally—arguing that artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and Chinese manufacturing overcapacity will prove disinflationary—Kaplan believes the Fed chair cannot impose his views unilaterally. “He’s got to get seven votes,” Kaplan says, emphasizing that the current committee, still mindful of a miscalculation about “transitory” inflation during the Covid-19 pandemic, will demand visible evidence of improving inflation before cutting rates. In the near term, with the oil price shock from the Middle East conflict pushing inflation readings higher and growth forecasts lower, Kaplan expects the Fed to remain on hold.
The Jobs AI Is Likely to Boost—and Those It May Disrupt
AI isn’t just a risk to jobs—it also increases the number of jobs in some sectors, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Our economists find that jobs are being lost in industries and occupations that face a high risk of AI substituting for workers, while employment is increasing in roles where AI is more likely to augment human labor. Goldman Sachs Research finds that professionals such as telephone operators, insurance claims clerks, and bill collectors face the highest substitution risk. By contrast, roles such as education workers, judges, and construction managers offer the highest AI augmentation potential. “AI augmentation that makes workers more productive can reduce the number of workers needed to produce a fixed amount of output,” explains Elsie Peng, an economist in Goldman Sachs Research. “But by lowering the cost per unit of output, it might also increase demand for what they produce enough to generate a net increase in their employment.”
Overall, this creates a modest drag on US labor markets, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Our economists’ more detailed analysis of the impact of AI, based on new research that allows for better distinctions between substitution and augmentation, finds that AI has likely reduced monthly payroll growth by a net 16,000 jobs in the past year in the US. That has added an estimated 0.1 percentage point to the unemployment rate. Read the full article , or find more of our insights on AI .
Fears of Private Credit Disruption Are Likely Overdone
In 2015, the private credit sector was a niche alternative, with about $600 billion in assets under management (AUM). A decade later, it’s a mainstream financing channel —with over $2.5 trillion under management.
After the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, structures called business development companies gained popularity by allowing high net worth retail investors to gain access to private credit. Now these investors are requesting withdrawals of more money than usual, sparking concerns about the sector. “But this activity is only occurring in one of three main investor channels, retail—not insurance and institutional channels,” explains Amanda Lynam, chief credit strategist for Goldman Sachs Research. “The majority of private credit AUM sits within institutional funds, where periodic investor withdrawals aren’t an option.” The underlying principles of the private credit asset class are expected to remain intact, Lynam adds, and she expects “that private credit will continue to play an important role in the broader financing ecosystem.”
From the Trading Floor: Tech Earnings Suggest the AI Trade Is ‘Intact’
A spate of US tech giants reported earnings on Wednesday, and while there was some variation among the results, the overall picture was supportive for the AI trade, according to traders in Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities. “On the two major thematics in focus, cloud growth and capex, results were generally in-line to above” investors’ expectations, says Chloe Garber, an equities sales trader. “This will likely be enough to maintain momentum behind the AI trade, albeit against a demanding backdrop.” While four US tech giants are expected to spend $700 billion this year, per corporate guidance—nearly double their 2025 spending—Garber says that investment is expected to increase “significantly” in 2027. The earnings reports point to strong AI demand, says Pete Callahan, the US Technology, Media and Telecommunications sector specialist. The industry remains short on compute capacity, per the large cloud companies, which is manifesting in accelerating backlog growth for compute services. These factors are driving “another outside revision to consensus capex estimates—especially for 2027,” Callahan says. Like Garber, Callahan notes that the trading backdrop could provide some reasons for caution. He points out that investor positioning has shifted from the oversold levels that previously supported rising prices. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil touched a four-year high this week, and interest rates are climbing. Callahan adds that geopolitical factors could become more powerful drivers of these stocks given that big tech has finished reporting earnings. Overall, however, “the key drivers of this AI cycle are intact,” Callahan says.
The Autonomous Vehicle Market Is Forecast to Grow Faster than Expected
The autonomous vehicle (AV) industry is accelerating from experimental concept to commercial reality, with deployments expanding across the US, China, and new international markets including parts of Europe and the Middle East, according to Mark Delaney, an analyst in Goldman Sachs Research.
Delaney estimates total AV industry revenue—spanning hardware, software, and services—could reach approximately $2 trillion in 2035. Key projections include: The global robotaxi market is forecast to reach roughly $415 billion in 2035, with the US portion alone estimated at $48 billion. The global AV trucking market could hit $560 billion in 2035, with AV trucks expected to become cheaper per mile than human-driven trucks in 2028 in the US. The commercial AV robotaxi fleet worldwide is projected to surge from roughly 7,000 vehicles last year to about 6 million in 2035. Revenue directly tied to artificial intelligence (such as virtual driver technology and consumer autonomy subscriptions) is estimated to rise to roughly $300 billion in 2035. Costs are expected to fall meaningfully. The all-in cost per mile (excluding corporate operating expenses) for an AV truck in the US is projected to drop from approximately $8.56 in 2025 to about $2.03 in 2035, while the comparable cost for a human-driven truck is expected to rise from $2.55 to $2.84 over the same period, Delaney estimates. On the robotaxi side, total cost per mile could fall below $1 in the US by 2035 for an operator that builds and runs its own fleet, driven by declining vehicle costs, lower insurance premiums, and improved remote supervision ratios, Goldman Sachs Research notes.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
