Fem vigtige observationer: Hver gang dette skete, kom der en efterfølgende nedtur

Uddrag fra Zerohedge:

 Here are five random macro observations from around the globe on that group-think.

1 – Pros vs Bros

HFs are selling while retail is buying. The 2nd-largest hedge fund selling in tech in a decade meets the 3rd-largest retail fund flow into QQQ.

Different this time: Retail is the smart money now…

Source: @jasongoepfert

2 – Concentration

Each time concentration levels hit 40 percent, a crash followed. We are at 41 percent.

Different this time: Surely there can never be a catalyst for an AI bubble unwind.

Source: BofA

3 – Oil & recession

Every time oil prices surged 50% above trend, it triggered a recession. This indicator predicted 6 out of 6 recessions… a 100% success rate. We just triggered that threshold again…. But I guess this time it’s different.

Source: ekwufinance

4 – South Korea up almost 200% in 12 months

When an entire country ETF starts trading like a single-stock AI call option, history says the next chapter is usually not “smooth multiple expansion.” Taiwan 1990, China 2007, Shenzhen 2015, and the absolute most relevant, of course, Oct 1998 → Mar 2000 Nasdaq ~+240–260% in ~17 months. Bet it is different this time.

Source: Koyfin

5 – Well above the channel

DB: “Our forecasts (and the consensus) are for earnings to rise well above their long-term trend channel”

Well, it is apparently truly different this time….

Source: Deutsche Bank