Grafer: Skizofrene aktiemarkeder – private panik-køber, professionelle rekordstor andel shorts

Schizophrenic

Retail investors continue panic-buying equities, while institutions still look far more cautious, trimming exposure in some of the market’s most crowded trades.

At the same time, equity allocations just exploded higher, cash levels triggered a classic BofA sell signal, semis remain the number one crowded trade globally, and hedge fund short exposure has quietly surged to fresh 10-year highs.

The result is a schizophrenic market: everyone feels underinvested while positioning, leverage, and FOMO already look dangerously stretched.

The big short

Short exposure has now moved above pre-Iran ceasefire levels and is sitting at fresh 10-year highs.

No wonder upside options are so well bid.

Source: GS

Spot up, vol up

Can the market please move higher so vols can finally catch some bids? Amazing how the market still fears missing upside more than downside.

Source: LSEG Workspace

Far from euphoria

Hedge funds have aggressively added gross exposure lately, pushing leverage to fresh 5-year highs. Yet net exposure remains relatively moderate, suggesting institutional positioning still looks far less euphoric than the extreme behavior currently seen in retail flows, vol skews, and levered ETFs.

Managers have been trimming US Tech exposure into the rally while re-hedging macro and beta risk as inflation and yields move higher. (GS PB)

Source: LSEG Workspace

Source: GS

Retail roaring

Retail has not recorded a single negative imbalance day since March 30. May retail buy imbalances are now running at the strongest pace since early 2025. (GS stats)

Be bullish

Equity allocations at highest levels since January 2022.

Source: BofA

Cash is trash

Cash levels drop to 3.9%, triggering a sell signal.

Source: BofA

Just in time

Record monthly jump in FMS equity allocations just as things started to wobble a bit.

Source: BofA

MOMO puke

The recent momentum pullback has already been one of the largest unwinds of the past two years, with the pair down roughly 22–23% from local highs. That likely means most of the unwind is behind us for now, according to Goldman’s Sean Johnstone. Famous last words, or?

Source: GS/BBG

Crowded semis

Semis remain the number one crowded trade globally.

Source: BofA

Shaving off semis

Hedge funds have started trimming semis exposure while rotating modestly into software.

Source: GS