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Amerikanske statsobligationsrenter er steget i denne måned, primært på grund af højere end forventet inflation. Ifølge Phillip Lee fra Goldman Sachs skyldes stigningen også vedvarende økonomisk vækst og globale rentepåvirkninger, hvilket fører til, at investorer forventer længere perioder med højere renter. Særligt renterne på langvarige statsobligationer har nået det højeste niveau i 19 år.
I Asien har aktiemarkederne udviklet sig forskelligt. Nordasiatiske markeder, som Sydkorea og Japan, klarer sig bedre takket være kunstig intelligens-handel og energishocksikring. I Kina har A-aktier oplevet en stigning på næsten 10% i år, mens MSCI China Index er faldet med 2%.
Tyske føderale udgifter i april nåede €45,8 milliarder, hvilket er over forventningerne og en stigning fra april sidste år. Dette skyldes blandt andet en lempelse af gældsreglen for at øge forsvars- og infrastruktursudgifterne.
Der er stigende fokus på investeringer i vandinfrastruktur på grund af geopolitiske udfordringer og ændrede vejrforhold. Ifølge Goldman Sachs kræver dette nye teknologiske og finansielle løsninger for at møde det globale investeringsbehov, der anslås til €11,4 trillioner frem til 2040.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Phillip Lee on The Markets
US government bond yields have surged this month. Hotter-than-expected inflation data may be the primary cause, but there are several drivers behind the move, says Phillip Lee , head of Real Money Rate Sales in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. US bond yields have surged as sticky inflation, resilient growth, and global yield spillovers push investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve cuts and price in pauses and higher rates for longer. At the same time, persistent fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, and rising debt sustainability concerns are driving investors to demand extra compensation to own long-term government debt. While shorter-term rates have risen as well, the move has been particularly notable in long-term Treasuries. This week, the 30-year yield hit its highest level in 19 years.
Lee expects to see the move continue. “I think rates are going higher,” he says. In particular, he expects that longer-term yields will continue to rise, as investors continue to demand more compensation for owning longer-term bonds, due to the potential for higher inflation and higher bond issuance. Shorter-term rates, on the other hand, could be driven more by Fed policy, which Lee expects to be relatively balanced between hikes and cuts in the years ahead.
Can Asia’s Stock Rally Continue?
Asian stocks appear to be on two very different paths, with North Asian markets, such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, pulling ahead of South Asian equities on the strength of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade and their greater insulation from the energy shock. Goldman Sachs Research’s Tim Moe outlines the factors driving North Asia’s outperformance on the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges . The AI memory super cycle is boosting South Korean shares: Moe believes the semiconductor memory boom will last three to five years, far longer than the market is pricing in. With token demand projected to grow 24x by 2030 as uptake of agentic AI grows, supply constraints should sustain pricing power, he says. China’s A-shares outperform: A-shares, which are listed in mainland China and traded in renminbi, are up nearly 10% year to date, bolstered in part by policy support and strong earnings. In contrast, the MSCI China index, a measure of offshore equity performance, is down 2% so far this year, weighed down by softer earnings from the index’s internet-heavy composition. “The story here is better-than-expected earnings delivery for onshore and subpar earnings delivery for offshore,” Moe says. Japan’s bull case remains intact: Political stability following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election, solid earnings growth amplified by favorable exchange rates, a normalization of interest rates, and corporate governance reforms are among the factors that make Japan attractive to investors, according to Moe. Read more about Moe’s prediction for South Korea’s stock market amid surging semiconductor earnings.
The Key Number: €45,800,000,000
German federal spending in April came in at €45.8 billion ($53.3 billion), above our economists’ forecast of €42.2 billion and an increase of €8 billion relative to April 2025. Germany relaxed its constitutional debt rule last year to allow for higher defense and infrastructure spending. Defense spending so far in 2026 is up 34% from 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Research economist Niklas Garnadt. While spending in the main budget and the military fund were in line with our economists’ expectations in April, the €6.1 billion of implied spending in the government’s infrastructure and climate fund “exceeded expectations notably,” Garnadt writes in a report. At the same time, government revenues fell slightly short of expectations. This, along with higher-than-expected spending, resulted in a higher fiscal deficit than our economists anticipated. The cumulative fiscal deficit in the main budget and the two main off-budget funds this year, which now stands at €63.6 billion, is more than twice as wide as in April last year. Read the full report on rising German federal spending in April.
Water’s New Investment Wave
Access to capital is becoming a focus for water infrastructure as countries facing geopolitical competition, rising demand, and changing weather patterns try to protect their water supply, according to a report from the Goldman Sachs Global Institute and the Sustainable Finance Group. The World Economic Forum estimates that the global need for investment in water infrastructure through 2040 is €11.4 trillion—€6.5 trillion more than current investment levels. In response, technological advancements and innovative financing solutions are springing up to direct capital towards water infrastructure and technology, the report says. Public-private partnerships are a key funding vehicle for governments undertaking infrastructure projects. Governments can de-risk projects through guarantees and anchor investments, helping to “crowd in” private capital. And targeted incentives, including grants, low-interest loans, and regulatory frameworks, can bring promising pilot programs to scale. Market reforms and rising demand are increasing the opportunity for key technologies, from desalination to enhanced leak monitoring and circular solutions, to better recover costs and to scale up. Financial innovation can support capital inflows and technological deployment. For example, microfinance provides another route to investing in water markets, and tokenized financing can deliver credits for companies that conserve or recycle water. Also read an article from Goldman Sachs Asset Management on where investors are finding opportunities in the global response to water stress.
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