Resume af teksten:
Investorer og erhvervsledere er generelt optimistiske om 2027, men er blevet mere forsigtige på grund af geopolitisk usikkerhed, inflation og højere renter.
Virksomheders fusioner og opkøb ventes at stige 30-35 procent i 2026.
S&P 500 faldt 3 procent torsdag, mens Nasdaq 100 faldt omkring 5 procent efter det amerikanske midtvejsvalg.
Historisk steg S&P 500 i gennemsnit 7,5 procent frem til årets udgang efter 18 midtvejsvalg.
Europæiske aktiers indtjening pr. aktie ventes at vokse 18 procent i 2026 og 7 procent i 2027.
Den globale musikbranches årlige omsætning ventes at nå omkring 200 milliarder dollar i 2035.
Musikbranchens omsætning forventes at vokse 5,8 procent årligt fra 2025 til 2035.
Markedet for livemusik ventes at vokse 6 procent i 2026.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
John Waldron with host Allison Nathan on Goldman Sachs Exchanges
Investors and business leaders are generally optimistic about the outlook for 2027 even as geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, and higher interest rates have prompted greater caution relative to the beginning of 2026, according to John Waldron, president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs. The higher cost of capital and of doing business is a challenge for companies, Waldron says on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast. At the same time, he says, “there’s plenty of good things going on”—particularly in the US, where nominal economic growth is robust and the consumer is resilient. “Most companies are seeing pretty strong end demand, and we still have very strong earnings. So I’m still on the side of optimism when I think about our clients and what they’re feeling,” Waldron says. Companies are increasingly turning to mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as they seek scale, which brings with it the ability to attract more capital and generate better returns. Waldron expects corporate M&A to grow 30%-35% in 2026, which he says could make 2026 a record year for M&A. He views this as a sign that executives are positive about their companies and the operating environment. “CEOs are not going to do M&A transactions if they’re not feeling confident in their own business.” Watch the full episode for more of Waldron’s views on the outlook for capital markets and Goldman Sachs’ strategy.
Will US Stocks Follow Their Historical Pattern after Midterms?
The S&P 500 fell Thursday after the US midterm elections sparked a selloff in tech stocks. The volatility raises the question: Will US equities follow their usual historical pattern of rallying after the midterm polls? Across 18 midterms, the S&P 500 index rose on average 7.5% through year-end, 13.9% over six months, and 15.5% over 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities. In all 18 instances, the S&P 500 was higher both six and 12 months after the midterms. The Nasdaq 100 fell about 5% on Thursday and the S&P 500 declined 3%. “We are not seeing buyers step in to defend anything just yet,” John Flood, head of Americas Equities Execution Services in Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, wrote in a note on Thursday.
Why European Companies Are Forecast to Have Robust Earnings Growth
European stock returns have pulled ahead of US equities this year (as of November 6, in local-currency terms), after the results of the US midterm elections sparked a selloff in tech stocks. Strong earnings growth has helped Europe’s stock market absorb higher bond yields, elevated energy prices, and subdued domestic economic growth this year, writes Sharon Bell, senior European equity strategist for Goldman Sachs Research, in a report. Our strategists expect European earnings to continue outstripping domestic economic growth. They forecast earnings per share for Europe’s STOXX 600 index to grow 18% in 2026 and 7% in 2027. Meanwhile, euro area nominal GDP is forecast to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027. The composition of sectors represented among Europe’s biggest stocks could help explain the divergence. “The equity market is a distorted mirror of the economy,” Bell writes. Financial sector companies account for more than 30% of STOXX earnings, but only 10% of euro area economic activity. Energy and technology are also more important to listed earnings, while real estate, retail, and industrials have larger weights in the economy relative to the STOXX 600 index. Country exposure also matters. Listed companies now generate most of their revenues outside their country of domicile, and only around a third of STOXX 600 companies’ sales are generated in the euro area today (compared with 60% from the same countries in 1990). And a weaker euro raises the translated value of overseas profits. Read more of our insights on Europe’s economy and financial markets .
The Outlook for the Music Industry amid Streaming Growth
Global music industry revenues are expected to reach approximately $200 billion annually by 2035 amid an improving outlook for subscription streaming. Goldman Sachs Research expects revenues to increase at a compound rate of 5.8% per year between 2025-2035.
The forecast represents the first time in three years that Goldman Sachs Research has raised its long-term outlook for the industry, Stephen Laszczyk and Eric Sheridan write in the team’s 2026 edition of the annual “Music in the Air” report. “While growth is likely to moderate from the pace observed during the industry’s streaming adoption phase, we continue to see a long runway for industry expansion supported by favorable consumer behavior and an increasingly diversified monetization model,” Laszczyk and Sheridan write. Emerging markets are poised to drive growth in paid subscription streaming revenue. The percentage of internet users with paid streaming subscriptions in emerging markets is forecast to rise from 10% in 2025 to 15% in 2035. And revenue per user is rising in developed markets, with more consistent price increases expected from streaming platforms as music labels increasingly incorporate higher royalties into their contracts and streaming platforms introduce new premium service tiers. Despite pressure on consumer wallets from tariffs, oil prices, and higher interest rates, our analysts expect the market for live music to grow 6% in 2026. They believe that demand for live events has increased globally since the Covid-19 pandemic, and that the sector is less exposed to economic downturns than other forms of discretionary spending. AI’s impact on the music industry has been “the biggest debate among music investors over the last year,” Laszczyk and Sheridan say. But they believe that AI represents an opportunity for music labels and rights holders as streaming providers and tech companies use the technology to personalize recommendations, curate content, and turn passive listeners into active creators.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
