Opbremsningstendens i globalt opsving fortsætter

Global Konjunktur: Den solide vækst i den globale økonomi fortsætter. Men der kommer fortsat flere indikationer på opbremsningstendenser, ikke mindst i Europa, som har overrasket meget positivt de seneste kvartaler.

Den globale økonomi har det fortsat super godt, med robust økonomisk vækst og overraskende stærk fremgang i USA. Under overfladen er der dog også signaler på, at der er ved at ske en opbremsning i det europæiske vækstmomentum. I JP Morgans månedlige PMI måling for den globale erhvervstillid hedder det om oktober, at ”Although the rate of expansion in eurozone economic activity eased slightly, it was still one of the best registered over the past six-and-ahalf years. Growth accelerated in France, but eased in Germany, Italy, Spain and Ireland.” Det er tydeligvis den fremadrettede ordreindgang, der trækker ned: “Global new orders increased for the hundredth month in a row in October. The pace of expansion stayed solid, despite easing to a four-month low.”

I den seneste opdatering af OECD’s ledende indikator er der også de første opbremsningstendenser i UK og Frankrig, mens BRIK landene viser solid fremgang.

Ifølge Markits sektormåling af erhvervstilliden i Europa er den positive stemning især trukket frem af banksektoren og investerings gode industrier med hovedvægt på maskinproducenter og teknologiudstyr: ”The overall strength of financial sector activity was driven by banks, which saw the fastest growth since February 2006. It was closely followed in the detailed sector rankings by machinery & equipment and technology equipment respectively. The relatively weak performance of consumer services mainly reflected a renewed decline in activity in the tourism & recreation sector. Output has declined five times in 2017 so far, with the latest contraction the sharpest since July 2013,” skriver Markit.

I USA ser økonomien nu ud til at buldre derud af. De fleste ledende økonomiske indikatorer peger næsten lodret op. Og det har smittet af på forbrugertilliden. Conference Board skriver: “Consumer confidence increased to its highest level in almost 17 years (Dec. 2000, 128.6) in October after remaining relatively flat in September. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, boosted by the job market which had not received such favorable ratings since the summer of 2001. Consumers were also considerably more upbeat about the short-term outlook, with the prospect of improving business conditions as the primary driver.”

I Kina ser erhvervstilliden ud til fortsat at ligge underdrejet. PMI målingen for oktober viste samme lille plust lige over en uændret udvikling.