NY rapport fra verdensbanken, IMF, peger på overdreven finansiel risikotagning i kølvandet på bankernes likviditets udpumpning
Alongside supportive central bank policies, financial conditions have continued easing over the last few months. Sovereign bond yields have edged further down and equity prices have generally risen. Sentiment toward emerging markets has improved, as reflected in resilient portfolio inflows and stable or stronger currencies. Implied volatility measures fell to the very low levels prevailing before the May 2013 tapering remarks. This raises concerns that excessive risk taking may be building up, which could sharply reverse in the run-up to U.S. rate hikes or should geopolitical events trigger higher risk aversion. Looking forward, the global recovery should regain strength but downside risks have risen. Exceptionally supportive financial conditions, moderating fiscal consolidation, and strengthening balance sheets should support the recovery in the remainder of 2014 and into 2015. Global growth in 2014 would remain below the April WEO forecast, however, reflecting the weaker first part of the year. Downside risks have increased. Heightened geopolitical tensions and a sharp reversal of recent risk spread and volatility compression pose new risks to growth, while other downside risks remain, including those related to U.S. monetary policy normalization challenges, low inflation/deflation in some advanced economies, and, in the medium run, the possibility of growth stagnation more broadly.
