Fra Scotiabank: regnskabssæsonen starter onsdag med Alcoa, og nu positive overaskelser kan måske give et nyt tiltrængt løft til aktiemarkederne. Men er analytikernes estimater igen for forsigtige?
Earnings season gets started again next week, but slowly. To witness falling stock prices heading into an earnings season that then encounter better-than-expected results and recover lost ground has been a recurring pattern during earnings season for some time now. It’s obviously not clear as of yet whether the same thing is happening into this earnings season but the track record of analysts in calling the peak of the earnings cycle has been generally poor and consistently surprised to the upside. Alcoa marks the unofficial start to each round of quarterly earnings reports and it releases on Wednesday. Nine firms listed on the S&P500 will report including Costco. It’s the week after when things really rip as 58 firms release including key financials and tech stocks. Going to Washington next week? Great. It’s one of my favourite cities, but I hope you booked a flight and a hotel room a long time ago because the cocktail circuit will be in full force as annual World Bank and IMF meetings coincide with the meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. Headline risk could appear randomly throughout much of the week as the opinions of central bankers and other public officials will be sought. World Bank & IMF meetings in Washington from Wednesday to Friday may garner headlines in the wake of updated IMF forecasts for the world economy that land on Tuesday. The outline for the meetings is available here and I would flag the discussion on the Global Financial Stability Report on Wednesday (following BIS warnings in June here) as something that could raise eyebrows. As the BIS’s chief economist put it: “A common mistake is to take unusually low volatility and risk spreads as a sign of low risk when, in fact, they are a sign of higher risk-taking.” The earlier session on sustained growth could be another potential source of headline risk. Krugman (fiscal liberal) and Rogoff (fiscal conservative) will square off against one another in the public debt panel as Krugman has tended to argue that Rogoff’s magical debt threshold (repudiated here for its inaccurate methodology) is an artificial construct and a false foundation for restrictive global fiscal policy. Have a scan of the (long) agenda if interested, and note risk in other areas including Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer’s participation in a CNN-sponsored debate on the global economy.
