Den globale vækstmotor USA bremser op

Flere indikatorer peger i retning af, at den vigtigste globale vækstmotor, nemlig USA, nu bremser lidt op. Usikkerheden om retningen på europæisk vækst vokser. Markit skriver i den seneste update for Eurozonen, at ”advarselssignalerne blinker”.

Overordnet er billedet, at den økonomiske vækst i årets tredje kvartal fortsat vil være solid, men bare ikke lige så høj som i andet kvartal. Den mest dugfriske indikator er Markits flashmåling af den amerikanske erhvervstillid, hvor kommentaren til målingen lyder sådan:

”The US economy lost a little pace in August, according to the flash PMI, but continued to grow at a solid rate. The PMI is indicative of the economy growing at an annualised rate of roughly 2.5%, down from a 3.0% indicated rate in July. Output, new orders and employment growth all moderated, adding to signs that the economy has cooled after strong growth in the second quarter. Backlogs of uncompleted work, a key indicator of future output and hiring, meanwhile fell for the first time for over a year, suggesting the slowing trend could persist into the fall.”

Opbremsningen i den amerikanske vækst bekræftes af både Citi Groups Economic Surprise index og af den ledende indikator fra ECRI, som ved seneste opdatering nåede det laveste niveau siden marts 2016.

Andre målinger af væksten i USA’s økonomi, baseret på hard data, viser fortsat buldrende fremgang. Det gælder blandt andet Atlanta Fed ledende indikator og Conference Boards ledende indikator. Men der er altså ret sikre indikationer på, at tredje kvartal ikke kan holde dampen fra andet kvartal oppe.

For europæisk økonomi er billedet fortsat mudret, efter at de ledende indikatorer de seneste måneder har vist opbremsning. I den seneste flash PMI måling fra Markit hedder det direkte, at advarselslamperne ”are flashing.”: ”Warning lights are flashing. Analysis of past data indicates that demand needs to pick up to sustain current output and employment growth in coming months. Yet the risks seem tilted to the downside.

“Escalating political worries, rising prices and a recent slowdown in order book growth have all contributed to the gloomiest outlook for almost two years, according to companies’ expectations of their future output. In manufacturing, optimism is down to its lowest for almost three years, as a nearstalling of exports corroborated escalating trade war worries.”

Den separate flash PMI-måling for Tyskland giver dog lidt opmuntring: “German business continued to display remarkable resilience during August, with the latest PMI data going some way to dispel any fears about a global trade slowdown and its impact on the health of the economy.”

MWL