Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

ING: Sådan kan krisen i Det Røde Hav påvirke råvarepriserne: ”Attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have recently intensified – and there doesn’t appear to be any sign of tensions easing just yet. We have also seen retaliation from the US and UK in the form of carrying out airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen. It remains unclear how the Houthis will respond to these attacks and whether they risk dragging in other actors within the region. But clearly, escalation raises both the risk of disruptions to flows and the likelihood that more shippers will reroute around Southern Africa. For commodity markets, the increased tension poses supply risks, with energy markets most vulnerable. However, for oil and LNG, we are not seeing any fundamental impact on supply yet.” Læs hele analysen her .

ABNamro: Sådan ses udviklingen på det europæiske marked for CO2-kvoter: ”The EUA price has been witnessing a declining trend since the autumn of 2023, while it has also shown a high correlation with European gas prices more generally. The trends have continued this year, with the EUA price reaching a 15-month low in mid-January. Mild weather and slow economic activity reduced demand for ETS allowances from the power and industrial sectors. We expect the downward trend in EUA prices to continue in the near term on the weakness in the economy. January 2024 marks the extension of the European Emission Trading System to cover emissions from the shipping sector. The EUA price has been experiencing a declining trend since the autumn of 2023, reaching a twelve-month low of 63.89 EUR/tCO2 mid-January. The decline was driven by a number of factors. First of all, the decrease in European gas prices. Lower gas prices trigger a switch from coal to gas for power generation, and since gas has a relatively lower emission intensity, demand for EUAs is lower for the same power generated.” Læse hele analysen her .

JP Morgan: Sådan vil geopolitiske risici påvirke markedet i 2024: “Geopolitical risks have played a big role in markets over the past several years, and 2024 is expected to be no different. Over 40% of the world’s population is eligible to vote in their national elections this year, which began

with the general election in Taiwan in mid-January and will conclude with the U.S. presidential election in November. Moreover, the continued war in Eastern Europe and the developing conflict in the Middle East may have investors uneasy about putting capital to work. The number of tankers transiting through the Red Sea have fallen by more than half over the past six months, suggesting passages have already redirected to avoid routes impacted by conflict.” Læs hele analysen her .

Citigroup: A Road Map for China’s Transition Away from Property: “A recent report from Citi Research’s Xiangrong Yu and team looks at how the Chinese government is searching beyond its ailing property sector for growth, with tech and innovation a big part of the plan. China’s “de-property” process is proceeding as part of the country’s still-fragile post-COVID recovery. The government seems to be pinning its hopes on three areas to take up the slack following the well-publicized malaise in the Chinese property market. 1. Tech and Innovation. 2. Advanced manufacturing. 3.Modern infrastructure. These emerging sectors could match the size of property and would consolidate China’s status as “the world factory.” Læs hele analysen her .

Merril Lynch: Derfor fortætter de stramme rentespænd til kreditobligationer trods rentestigninger: ”For several reasons, credit markets have remained unfazed in the face of the fastest interest rate hiking campaign in 40 years, with spreads narrow and appetite for riskier credit actually increasing in recent months. First, history suggests that credit spreads don’t widen much until the contours of an economic downturn become apparent, which is nowhere near the current consensus forecast. Economic growth has continued to surprise to the upside (..) and the outlook for corporate earnings has improved, a favorable combination for corporate creditworthiness and credit spreads. Second, not only have corporate revenues been enhanced by unprecedented government stimulus, but corporations borrowed at historically low interest rates before the Fed started raising rates.” Læs hele analysen her .

Morten W. Langer