Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

Natixis: Working-age population and total population. “The source of difficulties with public finances: As a first approximation, we can consider that public spending is linked to the total population (children and pensioners generate public spending) whereas tax revenue, for a given tax burden, is linked to the working-age population (employment generates taxable income in one form or another). We compare changes in the working-age population and in the total population, both in the past and forecast for the future. A smaller increase in the working-age population than in the total population is therefore offset: * Either a rise in the employment rate, but this cannot be perpetual; * Or by a growing fiscal deficit;
* Or by an increase in the tax burden; * Or by a reduction in public spending relative to its spontaneous trend. We look at these trends in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Japan. We see: * A rise in the employment rate everywhere; * An increased fiscal deficit in the United Kingdom, the United States, France, Spain and Italy; * A rising tax burden in the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy and Japan.”

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Unicredits Erik F. Nielsen: The economic outlook is fundamentally more uncertain than at any time during the 40 years I have come to IMF annual and spring meetings. ”Discussions about economic policies often seemed disjointed. (…) The geopolitical world is changing at a frightening pace (and not in a good direction) while most economies are still struggling with the aftermath of the past few years’ multiple shocks and unprecedented policy reactions. As a result, nobody really pretends to know what the future will look like. In some ways, this is illustrated by the IMF’s forecast of broadly unchanged global growth at (a disappointingly low) 3.2% this year – and every year throughout the forecasting period (granted, with a few relative country-level changes over the time period.) But one thing all we economists seemed to agree on was that the US fiscal deficit is unsustainably high (at close to 7% of GDP – at a time of full employment!). Yet, we also all agreed that it’s unlikely to be reduced over the next couple of years, regardless of who wins the election in November, and most of us agreed that there is no real risk of a “Liz Truss moment” in the foreseeable future.

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ING: Taxonomy Disclosures: A slow start, but a start nonetheless. “For the first time, banks disclosed their Taxonomy alignment and Green Asset Ratio alongside their Taxonomy eligibility. The GAR average lies just over 3%, far below the expected 10%, while the eligibility rate increased by 5pp since last year to reach 35%. Several factors explain these very low results including data gaps and calculation differences. In this article: What you need to know about the latest EU Taxonomy disclosures. What’s new this year? First GAR disclosures are disapointingly but not surprisingly low. Results to take with a pinch of saltLarge data gaps. Banks are still in a learning phase. Imperfect methodology A sinuous start to a long regulatory road.”

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ABNamro: Den truende politiske fragmentering vil gøre Europa-Parlamentet mindre effektivt. ”The latest polls predict a shift to the right, and a more fragmented European Parliament after the next Parliament elections in June. Increased fragmentation will hinder creating coalitions and reaching voting majorities. Therefore, we expect a policy poor period is ahead of us. We also expect a change in policy focus. After June, a majority in the European Parliament will be supportive of restrictive immigration policies. Eurosceptic parties favour national autonomy over centralized policies, thus underutilizing the full potential of the common market. Majorities for more latitude for individual member states will become likely, which could jeopardize fiscal prudence. Another shift is expected with regards to the environment. The majority of the new Members of Parliament will probably advocate for a more gradual transition, increasing the risk that the transition pathway moves away from an ’orderly Net Zero’ scenario towards a delayed transition scenario.”

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Morten W. Langer