Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

Unicredits Erik F. Nielsen: Er Macrons visioner vilde eller realistiske? “Taking a leaf out of the Chinese government’s playbook, Macron said he wants Europe to become the global leader by 2030 in five key areas, namely artificial intelligence, quantum computing, the space industry, biotechnology, and new forms of clean energy, including hydrogen and nuclear fusion. To this end, he called on the EU to favor European companies over foreign rivals when it comes to public financial support in strategic sectors such as defense and space. Specifically, Macron warned that Europe should not rely on the US for its security and – controversially – called for a new “European defense initiative,” hinting that NATO is not the only forum for European capitals to discuss such issues. In his follow-up interview with The Economist (highly recommended!) Macron said that he wants to use the European Policy Community meeting at Blenheim Palace in July to push for this European defense initiative, including with the UK. If so, that’s definitely good news. To achieve it all, Macron proposed a “public investment shock” and a doubling of Europe’s research spending partly funded by a doubling of the EU’s own resources via levies from the carbon adjustment mechanism and a financial transaction tax, but also shared borrowing for e.g. defense.“

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Morgan Stanley: Odds of the more concerning recessionary “hard landing,” in which the economy slows sharply, have jumped to about 25%-30%. “There was also a hint of potential “stagflation,” a scenario in which growth stalls while inflation persists, coming from last week’s first-quarter GDP report that showed lower-than-expected growth alongside stubborn inflation. nWhy the shift in our outlook? We believe the economy has grown more vulnerable to a boom-bust scenario as disparity grows between the largest companies and wealthiest households and other, more vulnerable sectors. First, consider what we call the “haves.” Today, the outlook for mega-capitalization companies and large-cap multinationals, especially those tied to global manufacturing markets, appears to have brightened: Global economic-surprise indices, which measure the extent to which economic data are beating or missing consensus forecasts, have turned up.”

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Deutsche Bank: Latest in AI: Copyright conflicts, selfdriving cars, and more AI assistants. “The pivotal role of copyright in deciding who gets paid for AI-generated content came into the spotlight once again last week when eight publications became the latest media firms to sue OpenAI and Microsoft for alleged copyright infringement. In this edition of ‘Latest in AI’, we explain why this matters and discuss how it differs from the tack taken by other media companies to sign content licensing deals with AI developers. We also cover how self-driving cars finally look a little closer with the first driverless league race and advances for Tesla in China. And how AWS is entering a crowded market with its new ‘Amazon Q’ generative AI productivity tools.”

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ABNamro: What are the abatement costs of the key decarbonization technologies? “In order to decarbonize the world and to become net-zero by 2050 decarbonization technologies play a crucial role • The costs of these technologies were on a declining trend but such trend has reversed since 2019/2020 • These technologies lower emissions to the extent that own life cycle emissions need to be taken into account as well • The footprint of the energy mix of a country determines the appropriate technology options to decarbonize • Lower footprint means fewer decarbonization options and higher marginal abatement costs • The current ETS carbon price and the marginal abatement costs for the different technologies vary substantially. The ETS price needs to increase strongly and/or technologies need to become cheaper to meet transition goals in a timely matter.”

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Morten W. Langer