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Analyser fra internationale finanshuse: AI-hype måske overdrevet på den korte bane

Morten W. Langer

fredag 09. februar 2024 kl. 11:30

Internationale rapporter og tendensen

Uddrag fra ØU Finans og ØU Ledelse, hvor vi hver uge bringer resumeer og links til aktuel research fra udenlandske finanshuse. Se links i bunden af hvert resume

Merril Lynch: Semiconductors og AI-hypen er måske overdrevet på den korte bane, men ikke på længere sigt: “Semis: Why They Should Matter So Much for Inve­stors: 2023 was the year that put Artificial Intelligence (AI) front and center of the next big thing in Technology, if not a new economic revolution. Before investors had a chan­ce to understand the investment implications from this technology, a run up on these stocks was due to a “fear of missing out” (FOMO) as stocks appreciated beyond their historic valuations. Several of these stocks were in the semiconductor (Semi) industry and were deemed the AI compute engines behind the infrastructure build out of large language models (LLM) that will potentially enable machines to have the cognitive ability to displace a multitude of jobs. The run in AI-related stocks may prove overdone in the near term, but AI could be even bigger than people think in the long term. AI could be the next frontier, but markets tend to front run the effect of new technologies before they generate actual returns, thus creating volatile investment cycles.”

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ABN Amro: Shipping-disruptions i det røde hav ses kun at have marginal betydning for inflationen: ”Sin­ce our Global Outlook 2024 publication in early Decem­ber, the US economy has clearly slowed, the eurozone is stabilising at weak levels, and China’s growth momentum continues to be weighed by the stumbling property sec­tor. The broad trend has been in line with expectations. However, the US economy has continued to defy expecta­tions for an even sharper slowdown, while the incoming data suggests the risks to eurozone GDP – in the very ne­ar-term – if anything look a little tilted to the downside. What about going forward? The core drivers of activity continue to suggest a transatlantic convergence in grow­th patterns. The fading impulse from excess savings and a cooling labour market are likely to weigh on consumption in the US. In the eurozone, the recovery in real incomes following the easing of the energy crisis and the catch-up in wages is expected to drive a modest recovery as the year progresses.“

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Morgan Stanley: M&A-markedet parat til et comeback I 2024. Her er fem grunde: “Mergers and acquisitions are due for a comeback in 2024 after a slowdown in 2023, according to Morgan Stanley Investment Banking. A num­ber of factors contributed to a muted M&A environment last year. Global inflation remained elevated for much of 2023, only receding at the end of the year; as a result, cen­tral banks kept interest rates at higher levels to cool infla­tion, which increased borrowing costs for buyers looking to finance M&A deals. Additionally, equity markets were challenged throughout much of the year, bringing down valuations and creating uncertainty. Finally, large M&A transactions continue to face increased regulatory scru­tiny, which impacted the number of megadeals in 2023.”

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ING: Et nærmere kig på energi-performance i det nye bygningsdirektiv. EU vurderer, at 75 pct. af bygninger­ne i EU er energi-ineffektive, men Danmark ligger godt: “The Energy Performance of Building Directive recast is moving a step closer to the finish line by reaching a pro­visional agreement. Renovation goals for residential and non-residential buildings and the gradual phasing out of fossil fuel heating are part of the changes. Banks are expe­cted to have an essential role in financing the transition.”

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ING: Energipriser i Europa normaliseres. Energikrisen er bag os: “The energy crisis is behind us, and the Euro­pean Commission has taken action to prevent further disruption over the coming years. European utilities will continue to grow in terms of both cash flow generation and investment, but at a less hectic pace. The extreme­ly elevated power prices seen in 2022 and 2023 are also entering into a normalisation phase . Actions have been taken to avoid another energy crisis. Power prices will retrench further in 2024 but remain elevated. Elevated prices and a sluggish economy could continue to destroy electricity demand. European utilities’ cash flow generati­on to progress again. Regulated network activities to drive the growth for the sector. “

Læs hele analysen her.

Morten W. Langer

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