Goldman med 34 sider analyse: AI: To buy, or not to buy, that is the question. “The technology sector has generated 32% of the Global equity return and 40% of the US equity market return since 2010. This has reflected stronger fundamentals rather than irrational exuberance. The tech sector globally has seen EPS rise c.400% while all other sectors together have achieved c.25% from the peak pre-GFC. The introduction of transformative technologies typically attracts growing investor interest as well as significant capital and new competition. As enthusiasm builds and stock prices increase, the sum of individual company valuations can overstate the total potential aggregate returns; often a bubble develops and bursts. Historically, investors over-focus on the originators, understate the impact of competition and overstate the returns on capital invested by the early innovators. At the same time, investors tend to underestimate the growth of new entrants to the industry that can piggyback off the capex of others, enabling them to generate new products and services. Valuations often also understate the opportunities that can accrue in the non-technology industries that can leverage the technology to generate higher returns in existing, as well as in new, product categories.” Læs hele analysen her.
ABNamro: What Trump tariffs would mean for Europe.
“Despite the rise of Harris in the polls, a Trump victory in the November election is still essentially 50-50. Trump’s most economically consequential plan is for a 10% universal tariff on all US imports. Eurozone industry is already struggling to recover from recent shocks. Tariffs would cause a collapse in exports to the US, with trade-oriented Germany and the Netherlands likely to be particularly hard hit. The policy would also drive a significant divergence in Fed & ECB monetary policy, weighing on the euro. In a scenario where the EU negotiates a European exemption, the eurozone will still see an initial hit to growth but might ultimately benefit from the diversion of US trade from tariff-hit countries. Regional updates: Services is still driving the Eurozone recovery for the time being, while in the Netherlands, disinflation is taking longer due to rising rents and strong wage growth. In the US, with the economy softly landing, the Fed is ready to start easing.” Læs hele analysen her.
President Harris scenario: Sustained climate ambition faces a bumpy road. “We expect Vice President Kamala Harris to depart from her 2020 stance and move towards the center. She is likely to preserve the Biden administration’s most important climate legacy, emphasizing a more efficient implementation of the IRA. Harris would want to strengthen environmental regulation but her ability to do so would be constrained. Since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democrat Party presidential candidate, she has been strategically silent about her energy and climate policy platform. Her campaign for the 2020 presidential election indeed outlined an aggressive vision, where she proposed to spend $10 trillion to decarbonize the US economy, establish a carbon tax, and ban fracking. But this time around, her ambiguity on climate policy so far is signaling a departure from her 2020 stance and a move toward the center.” Læs hele analysen her.
17-siders analyse fra Deutsche Bank: Five clues to the future of AI in recent headlines. “Artificial Intelligence is as hot as ever. Google searches for technology terms continue to be dominated by AI, with ChatGPT making a late summer surge as students ease the pain of that first post-vacation assignment. Virtual reality and the metaverse had their moments in the sun in recent years, Google Trends data show. Crypto, which briefly overtook AI in mid-2021, continues to excite some interest. But searches for AI this month are as high as they have ever been, and 20 times as high as crypto. Five themes stand out from the headlines from the last week or so, giving strong clues about the future of AI as the world buckles down for the rest of the year. 1. AI is the elephant in the stock room 2. Data centers are AI Ground Zero 3. AI is still a magnet for funding 4. Political appetite is growing for AI regulation 5. Real-world uses have yet to emerge.” Læs hele analysen her.
Morten W. Langer
