Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

Erik F. Nielsen, Unicredit: Opsigtsvækkende hvor me­get USA’s økonomi klarer sig bedre end europæisk økonomi. ”The difference in economic performance bet­ween the eurozone and the US these past two years is eye watering. It is one of the greatest gaps in decades which has opened up as the US powered ahead while Europe stagnated. It therefore seems bizarre to hear Holzmann’s underlying assumption for his policy prediction, namely that: “If the Fed changes its policy hiking [sic], then I assu­me it will have the same conditions like in Europe, because these currency areas are interrelated so this would then also mean that we have to rethink [our policies].” Whate­ver your opinion on the ECB’s need to pre-empt all risk of inflation expectations moving higher, the data now clearly show that conditions for the policy choices were not the same. The good news is that European policymakers (with the possible exception of Holzmann) have taken notice – although their prescription generally remains incomple­te. The real reasons for the eurozone underperforman­ce are: (i) the terms-of-trade loss, which policymakers don’t like to mention because it implies that we have all become poorer and there isn’t much they can do about it; (ii) the vastly less supportive fiscal policies, which is an issue completely drowned in Europe by the crazy fixation on fiscal rules and ill-defined lack of fiscal space; (iii) the monetary tightening, which politicians don’t comment on, and (iv) the more flexible US economy, which adjusts bet­ter to shocks.”

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DNB: Kinesiske rentenedsættelser vil næppe stoppe nedturen på boligmarkedet. ”The rate cut alone is not li­kely to temper the housing market downturn In our view, the rate cut alone is unlikely to be effective stimulus for the housing market. We believe that for homebuyers, the primary concerns are not related to the cost of mortga­ges, but rather a fear of continuing home-price declines and perpetual counterparty risk when purchasing homes from real estate developers in financial distress. Thus, a rate cut alone is simply not going to cut it. Unlike during the housing downturn in 2014-2015, when rapid rate cuts boosted demand for mortgages, the recent rate cuts in 2022-2023, have done very little to trigger a rise in new mortgages nor a rebound in housing sales. Additionally, we foresee some unintended consequences due to the ongoing interest rate reforms (detailed background on the LPR reforms can be found in the appendix). At pre­sent, while some households’ mortgages are priced based on the 5-year LPR, others, under legacy agreements, are not. The discrepancy between the costlier legacy mort­gages and the less expensive LPR-based loans is exactly why many households have chosen to prepay their legacy mortgages over the past year. Although direct mortgage refinancing is not permitted in China, some banks have reportedly been assisting customers in early mortgage repayment by offering them cheaper replacement loans intended for small businesses or consumer purchases.”

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Citi: Den amerikanske statsgæld vil næppe afspore det amerikanske opsving. ”Debt crises do occur. For government borrowers, there have been many sovereign defaults, generally among smaller economies borrowing in foreign currencies they don’t control (most often the US dollar). In the US itself, the events of 2008 were undoub­tedly a debt crisis. However, this was driven by very poor lending standards for home mortgage borrowers unable to repay shaky housing investments. US government debt since 2008 has been rising rapidly on a bi-partisan basis. The US Treasury, however, sits in an unusual place ahead of the world’s other borrowers in accessing credit from domestic (77%) and international lenders (23%) to be the world’s largest debtor. Unlike other developed economies, the bulk of government support for healthcare spending is age-triggered rather than birth triggered. Driven by the world’s most expensive healthcare costs per unit (accor­ding to The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development data), and limited direct revenue collections for Medicare spending, an aging population has a larger impact on US debt creation than other economies which generally cover or insure healthcare spending from birth.”

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Morten W. Langer