Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

JP Morgan: “An energy revolution is underway”: “Climate change policies may lead to one of the largest redeployments of investment and capital. An energy revolution is underway: governments have committed to net zero targets and more recent concerns about energy security and high prices are increasing pressure on governments to speed up the energy transition. A dramatic shift will be required in every sector of our economy to meet these targets – commodities and their producers will be at the centre of this transition. Much of the focus so far has been on energy companies managing the decline in demand for fossil fuels. Yet enormous demand is being created for the metals and minerals needed to build renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles (EVs). In this piece, we explore scenarios to estimate the size and speed of this increasing demand, the impact of corporate behaviour on supply and the resulting outlook for commodity prices. This massive, multi-year impact on commodities from the clean energy transition will present compelling opportunities for investors who want to position their portfolios to benefit from journey to net zero.”

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Citi Group: 2023 Was Tough for Healthcare but 2024 Looks Promising: “For those who recognize the unstoppable trends of longevity and innovation, 2023’s downturn presents potential opportunities. To us, many of the issues that held back healthcare are transitory. This creates possibility for sector outperformance in 2024 and the market seems to embrace this view as initial healthcare performance is brightening. Last year, surging sales of the new generation of anti- obesity drugs (GLP-1 drugs) led to healthcare’s “AI moment”, with two leading drug makers dominating equity market performance. 4Q23 earnings results confirmed that demand for GLP-1s continues to far exceed drugmakers’ manufacturing capacity. In fact, consensus for GLP-1 drug sales is around US$100bn by 2030. GLP-1 drug makers are now racing to collaborate with life sciences tools companies to manufacturing capacity. In the immediate term, companies that can fill the shortages in supply should benefit. For example, firms that produce active pharmaceutical ingredients are seeing better gross margins.” Læs hele analysen her. Natixis: What’s It Take to Be an AI Winner? “While AI is a major focus of investors today, especially after Nvidia earnings beat market expectations, Aziz Hamzaogullari, Founder & CIO, Growth Equity Strategies, Loomis, Sayles & Co., cautions that it is critical to be very selective in the AI space. View video for his perspectives on: *Buying Nvidia when it was one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500®* Why people will underestimate the impact of AI and overestimate the number of winners in AI. *What the past major disruptions, such as the internet and mobile, have taught investors about market winners and losers. *How AI is impacting every company in a major way, but only a few companies will dominate in this space.*Where the research and development spending of the top 1,000 companies in the US is going and why it matters to growth equity investors.”

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Goldman Sachs: Kun Schweiz og Danmark har større aktiemarkeds-koncentration end USA: ”Only Switzerland and Denmark (much smaller economies) have stock market values that are bigger on a relative basis as a share of the economy (Exhibit 4, grafik herunder, red.). In Denmark’s case, this mainly reflects the size of Novo Nordisk, whose stock market value alone is bigger than the annual GDP of the Danish economy.

There are very good reasons why the US equity market has outperformed and become more dominant. First, as Exhibit 5 shows, over the period since the GFC the US stock market has simply outgrown others in terms of earnings growth.”

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Morten W. Langer