Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

Citigroup: “The Bull Market Is Not Aging, It’s Broadening”. ”It has been said that an aging bull market tends to “narrow out” as it reaches its peak. We see the opposite happening in markets today. More US and global equities are breaking out of trading ranges, in line with our expectation that more sectors will post EPS gains in 2024 than in 2023. Last year, about half of the S&P 500 sectors saw their EPS shrink. This year, nine of eleven are expected to post gains. Just two years ago, financial markets were gripped in panic that the “easy money era was at an end.” Investors believed the post-pandemic economic recovery was as good as over. Doom and gloom for both stocks and bonds gave way to a robust market boom that is now broadening (…). To us, this looks like the end of a recessionary trough rather than an impending business cycle peak.”

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Goldman Sachs: Bølge af healthcare-innovation vil booste den amerikanske økonomi. ”A wave of healthcare innovation may significantly boost the potential of the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The emergence of weight-loss medications, AI-powered drug discovery, genomic and regenerative medicine techniques such as gene and cell therapy, and advances in diagnostics for the detection of diseases such as Alzheimer’s amount to a “remarkable pace of healthcare innovation that could significantly improve health outcomes,” Goldman Sachs Research economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani write in the team’s report. These developments could enable people to live better and longer lives. While a healthier population is far and away the most important outcome of healthcare innovation, breakthroughs can also add up to big gains for the economy. On their own, new anti-obesity drugs could raise US GDP levels by 0.4% or more in the coming years, according to the report. More broadly speaking, the latest healthcare breakthroughs could lift GDP by 1.3%, equivalent to about $360 billion per year in today’s dollars.”

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Bank of Amercica: Fed tvunget til at nedbringe kort rente for at undgå eksplosion i USA’s statsgæld. ”Wall Street strategist, BofA CIO Michael Hartnett dedicated his entire ”Biggest Picture” segment to – you guessed it – the quantum leap higher in interest expense, which also Hartnett correctly notes is a ”big motivation” for Powell to cut rates to ”constrain the surge in interest costs” which he amusingly calls ”Interest Cost Control” policy, borrowing another term we have sporadically used on this website. The Biggest Picture: $1.1tn in interest payments on US government debt past 12 months, doubled since COVID trend in govt spending (up 9% YoY) & debt (up $1.0tn every 100 days)…big motivation for Fed to cut rates to constrain surge in interest costs (“ICC” or Interest Cost Control policy)… bear in bonds (if no recession), steeper yield curve, weaker US$, higher commodities/gold/crypto & TINA for stocks.”

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ABN Amro: Ny udbudsproces for vindmølleparker lægger mere vægt på økologiske hensyn. ”Besides a positive role in reducing emissions and meeting climate targets, offshore wind farms can also create negative ecological impacts, such as mortality and ecosystem disturbance for migrating birds or different species living in the sea. These started to be taken into account by the Dutch government when awarding tenders. Offshore wind farms may also have positive ecological effects by providing hard substrate that help the flourishment of some species. Permits to offshore wind projects are conventionally awarded through a tendering process that is coordinated by the government with price as the main determinant for the winner. The Dutch government recently revisited the auction design for offshore wind process emphasizing, a non-price criteria on top of the already existing pre-qualification criteria. The non-price criteria include, for example, mitigation measures for negative ecological impacts or nature enhancement measures. Accordingly, tenders for offshore wind are now based on a mix of requirements with points system.”

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Morten W. Langer