Få overblik i vores nye analyseoversigt

I denne gennemgang giver vi en smagsprøve på hvad Økonomisk Ugebrevs nye analyseoversigt giver adgang til af aktuelle analyser fra danske og udenlandske finanshuse, samt myndigheder, organisationer og analysefirmaer.

Som det fremgår af forsiden af analyseoversigten, som kan ses her er arkivet opdelt i ni kategorier:

Nemlig 1: Kort rente & Centralbankpolitik, 2: Fixed income (lang rente), 3: FX (valuta), 4: prognose realkreditrenter, 5: prognose for dansk økonomi, 6: Global makroøkonomi, 7: Vigtige makroøkonomiske nøgletal, 8: Kalendere, og 9: Analyser af aktiestrategi og råvarer.

I en aktuel FED Watch skriver Nordea, at “the Fed made only small tweaks to its statement today, characterizing economic activity as strong, and remains on track to raise rates again in September. We continue to see downside potential for the EUR/USD.”

ABN Amro skriver, at ”Fed View: Markets almost fully priced for a September hike – The FOMC kept monetary policy on hold today, as was widely expected. The accompanying statement contained little of note for investors beyond a very slight upgrade to the assessment of the economy (from ‘solid’ to ‘strong’).”

I en ugentlig opdatering skriver Goldman Sachs om Fixed Income, at “Low summer trading activity is being counterbalanced by elevated geopolitical uncertainty. US trade measures have become more concentrated resulting in continued depreciation of the Chinese yuan and Turkish lira versus the US dollar; domestic political and policy uncertainty has also weighed on the latter. The Russian ruble has also weakened amid fresh sanctions. • US core CPI inflation increased 2.3% year-over-year (YoY), the fastest pace since September 2008, largely due to higher airline and auto prices. We expect the pick-up in underlying price pressures alongside firm activity data to result in a rate hike at the next US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and we remain underweight front-end US rates.”

I en gennemgang af mulighederne efter det svenske valg, skriver SEB, at “The inability of the parties to deal with Sweden’s new political landscape will hinder the formation of a strong, decisive government. The ongoing parliamentary election campaign is dominated by blockages between potential coalition partners. In the prevailing public opinion situation an Alliance government will probably take power, although internal tensions regarding its relationship to the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats may threaten its stability. Financial markets are likely to pay more attention than usual to Swedish politics, but due to strong government finances, a high degree of consensus on economic policy matters and a history of cross-bloc cooperation, there is little risk of financial market turmoil.”

MerrillLynch skriver i en analyse af makro og markeder, at “The threat of a U.S.-led global trade war has exposed the earnings vulnerability of many global indexes. Of the 18 different international indexes we analyzed, the U.S. ranked in the top three markets in terms of total revenue generation, underscoring America’s commanding presence when it comes to global top-line growth. The region most dependent on the U.S. for revenue growth: Europe. PORTFOLIO CONSIDERATIONS We reaffirm our positive view on equities and negative view on fixed income given the growth momentum building, particularly in the U.S.”

Citibank skriver i en analyse af konflikten mellem USA og Tyrkiet, at ”There have been three important recent catalysts. Firstly, Turkey has detained a US pastor for nearly two years, and resisted calls for his release by the US. Secondly, last week the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism voiced their concern over Turkish borrowers that may not be hedged against Turkish Lira weakness and could potentially default on foreign currency loans. Thirdly, last Friday the US announced a doubling of its tariffs on Turkish exports of steel and aluminium to 50% and 20% respectively. Turkey exported over $1 billion of steel and $60 million of aluminium to the US last year.”

MWL

I Økonomisk Ugebrevs analyseoversigt er der direkte adgang til mange flere analyser, nøgletal og andre relevante opdaterede oplysninger for erhvervsfolk og analytikere med erhvervsmæssig interesse I finansielle markeder og makro.