Lige før den 4. industrielle revolution

Globale Megatrends 2018: Økonomisk Ugebrev bringer her det årlige tema med fokus på aktuelle globale megatrends. Gennemgangen er baseret på en stribe opdaterede rapporter og analyser fra anerkendte internationale analysehuse og organisationer. Vi sætter på de næste sider særlig fokus på de nye muligheder og konsekvenser af fintech og blochchain for den finansielle sektor og forbrugerne.

Mange af de globale megatrends, som fremhæves i analyserne og rapporter er ikke nye, men gengangere fra tidligere års temaer. Men flere af de nævnte megatrends er til gengæld blevet langt mere konkrete, nærværende og tættere på vores virkelighed, enten i samfundet, i erhvervslivet eller for borgere. I det følgende vil vi gengive udpluk fra nogle af de rapporter, vi har gennemgået, og der linkes samtidig til de enkelte rapporter, så man har mulighed for selv at grave dybere.

Det er selvfølgelig uundgåeligt, at mange af de prioriterede megatrend er drevet af innovationen i den nye digitale verden, med kunstig intelligens (AI), robotter, droner, brug af data, Internet of Things, 3D printing og i det hele taget erhvervslivets digitale transformation med anvendelse af nye forretningsmodeller.

Forbes fremhæver i en gennemgang af ni teknologiske megatrends, at markant øget computerkraft og bedre adgang til data om adfærd giver et enormt antal nye muligheder for at udnytte kunstig intelligens. ”It’s the incredible explosion in data that has allowed AI to advance so quickly over the last couple of years; the more data an AI system has, the quicker it can learn and the more accurate it becomes,” skriver Forbes.

Magasinet fremhæver perspektivet i mere udbredt platformstænkning, som har ofte har islæt af deleøkonomi sig, altså hvor aktører mødes og kommunikere via en fælles platform og udveksler information, produkter og/ eller services: ” Platforms have given rise to businesses like Airbnb, Uber and Amazon, and are also the foundation of what Facebook and Twitter do. However, platforms offer growth opportunities across all kinds of businesses, industries and sectors – not just tech companies.”

Konsulenthuset Gartner har fokus på 10 strategiske teknologitrends, som ikke overraskende ligger tæt på Forbes’ budskaber. I en gennemgang går konsulenthuset længere ned i, hvad det kalder ”The Intelligent Digital Mesh”. Gartner kalder koblingen mellem personer, devices, indhold og services ”The intelligent digital mesh” og forklarer betydningen af de tre ord sådan: ”Intelligent: How AI is seeping into virtually every technology and with a defined, well-scoped focus can allow more dynamic, flexible and potentially autonomous systems. Digital: Blending the virtual and real worlds to create an immersive digitally enhanced and connected environment. Mesh: The connections between an expanding set of people, business, devices, content and services to deliver digital outcomes.”

Gartner fremhæver, at nye digitale forretninger vil afhænge af evnen til at forstå og håndtere nye digitale business moments, altså konkrete business events, som eksempelvis håndtering af en købsordre: “ With the advent of AI, the IoT, and other technologies, business events can be detected more quickly and analyzed in greater detail. Enterprises should embrace “event thinking” as part of a digital business strategy. By 2020, event-sourced, real-time situational awareness will be a required characteristic for 80% of digital business solutions, and 80% of new business ecosystems will require support for event processing.”

Credit Suisse kalder i en analyse kunstig intelligens den næste store ting inden for IT: “ The next big thing in IT: Artificial Intelligence The disruptive force of artificial intelligence (AI) is at the heart of the new phase of digitalization, which the world is entering. The progress made by the IT industry in collecting, analyzing and managing structured and unstructured data in real time now enables us to make intelligent machines and computer programs, which can learn by themselves and solve problems in a manner which previously required human intelligence.”

Videre skriver finanshuset rettet mod finansielle investorer, at ”AI is expected to touch most industries in one way or another, as these solutions are believed to offer value by significantly improving productivity, cutting costs and providing a competitive advantage (…). We see attractive potential in areas such as logistics & transport,

agriculture, healthcare, commercial and consumer applications. According to the market research firm Tractica, revenues for non-industrial robots are expected to grow from about USD 12 billion in 2015 to USD 130 billion in 2020, while industrial robot market sales could almost double from USD 12 billion to USD 20 billion in the same period.”

Ifølge Credit Suisse står virtuel reality endnu foran sit endelige gennembrud, men hvor Pokemon Go og gaming markedet allerede har givet indikationer på, hvad der er på vej: “ We expect Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality (VR/ AR) to become a multi-billion dollar market by 2020, but investors need to be patient until more concrete business opportunities arise in 2018 and beyond, and revenues become more noticeable at companies. The tremendous success of Pokémon Go proved our thesis right; that the gaming industry is one of the first beneficiaries of VR. We continue to believe that the market for VR/AR hardware and software might increase to an even larger size than the current smartphone market (USD 600–700 bn; see Figure 2) and at the same pace that the latter witnessed during 2001–15. We believe the gaming market is just a catalyst and plenty of other applications should evolve in the next 10–15 years.”

I en artikel i tidsskriftet Innovation Journal skriver HP’s d Global Head of Tech Vision & Strategy om upcoming megatrends om tre vigtige megatrends: ”The first is the intersection of biological and computing technologies known as BioConvergence. BioConvergence enables us to make things using the principles, materials, and processes of nature and the advancements in digital technology.”

Videre hedder det, at “thanks to this blending of cyber, bio and physical, we have the ability to efficiently produce and customize products using local resources in ways never before imagined. We’ve already seen lithium-ion batteries made with alfalfa seeds and pine resin. And we may one day see the entire Internet backed up on a single gram of DNA. The productivity gains across the supply and demand chain are limitless.”

I en gennemgang af de ti mest perskektivrige nye teknologier I 2017 skriver World Economic Forum under overskriften “ These are the top 10 emerging technologies of 2017 ”, at WEF’s ekspertpanel har udvalgt fremtidens mest perspektivrige teknologier ud fra følgende forudsætning: ”Each technology was chosen for its potential to improve lives, transform industries and safeguard the planet. The experts were also looking for indications that the technologies have reached a level of maturity that would enable widespread take-up in the coming 3-5 years.”

Som eksempler på nye teknologier, som fremhæves af ekspertpanalet, kan nævnes muligheden for at udvinde rent vand fra luften. ”The ability to extract clean water from air is not new, however existing techniques require high moisture levels and a lot of electricity. This is changing. A team from MIT and University of California, Berkeley has successfully tested a process using porous crystals that convert the water using no energy at all. Another approach, by a start-up called Zero Mass Water from Arizona is able to produce 2-5 litres of water a day based on an off-grid solar system,” skriver WEF.

Som et andet eksempel nævnes muligheden for at udvinde flydende brændsel ud af sollys: “Can we mimic the humble leaf to create an artificial photosynthesis to generate and store energy? The prospects are looking increasingly positive. The answer lies in using sunlight-activated catalysts to split water molecules into water and hydrogen, and then using the same hydrogen to convert CO2 into hydrocarbons. Such a closed system – wherein CO2 emitted by combustion is then transformed back into fuel instead of the atmosphere – could prove to be revolutionary for the solar and wind industries.”