Kommentar PMI Composite falder til 46,7 mod 48,2 forventet af analytikerne
Uddrag fra PMI flash for Tyskland fra S&P Global //
Germany ends 2023 with further fall in activity and uptick in price
pressures
Key findings:
HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 46.7 (Nov: 47.8). 2-month low.
HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 48.4 (Nov: 49.6). 2-month low.
HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 43.4 (Nov: 44.2). 2-month low.
HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 43.1 (Nov: 42.6). 7-month high.
Data were collected 6-13 December
Germany’s private sector economy ended 2023 in contraction territory, according to December’s HCOB ‘flash’ PMI® survey
compiled by S&P Global, with the country’s manufacturers and services firms each recording slightly faster declines in activity.
Weak underlying demand was signalled by sustained downturns in both inflows of new business and backlogs of work, albeit
with the survey signalling a softening of the respective rates of contraction.
Inflationary pressures meanwhile increased at the end of the fourth quarter, with firms reporting the steepest rise in output
prices for seven months amid a more marked uptick in average costs. A combination of spare capacity and efforts to reduce
overheads saw employment fall for the fourth month running, and at a quicker rate. This was despite a further recovery in
business expectations from September’s recent low.
The headline HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index registered in sub-50 contraction territory for a sixth
successive month in December. Furthermore, at 46.7, the latest reading was down from November’s 47.8 and thereby signalled
a slight acceleration in the rate of decline in activity. Both manufacturing output (index at 43.4) and services business
activity (48.4) fell more quickly than in November.
December data indicated a sustained drop in demand for goods and services across the eurozone’s largest economy.
Customer reluctance, geopolitical uncertainty and high interest rates were just some of the headwinds cited by surveyed
businesses. However, whilst remaining marked, the rate of decline in new business eased for the third month running to the
weakest since June. This was driven by a slower (although still-sharp) decrease in manufacturing new orders as new business
in the service sector fell at a slightly quicker rate. Weaker demand from abroad remained a notable drag on both monitored
sectors.
The decline in total backlogs of work likewise eased in December, posting the smallest drop for six months. Again, the result
owned exclusively to the underlying trend in the manufacturing sector, where the rate of depletion of work-in-hand was the
weakest since May (although it was still far quicker than that seen in services).
Reduced workloads once again translated into job losses across the German private sector in December. Moreover, the rate of
decline in employment quickened to the fastest since August 2020. This reflected both a renewed decline in service sector
workforce numbers and a more marked reduction in factory headcounts – the sharpest for over three years.
On the cost front, December saw the fastest rise in businesses’ input prices for seven months. Operating expenses in the
service sector rose sharply and to the greatest extent since May, with surveyed firms highlighting the influence of wage
pressures, increased road tolls and general inflation. At the same time, the drag from falling manufacturing input costs eased,
with latest data showing the slowest rate of decline since April.
