”When it comes to oil demand, is there scope for China’s recent economic stimulus to change the balance relative to supply? “Not so much,” Struyven says. Even as China was the main driver of oil demand growth in the five or 10 years before the pandemic, the US remains the largest consumer of oil. The upside demand from China’s recent stimulus measures, meanwhile, appears relatively limited. High frequency data on Chinese demand are soft, and our economists forecast that the package discussed so far would boost GDP growth by only about 40 basis points. If Chinese policymakers were to implement other measures to support the economy, they could be designed to accelerate the country’s shift away from oil, for example, by increasing the build out of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles.”
Morten W. Langer
