Aktieanalytikerne fra danske og udenlandske finanshuse tror samstemmende ikke på et højere bud på Nets, da tilbudskursen på 165 kr. allerede er i den gode ende. Forventningen er, at Nets på sigt vil indgå i en europæisk konsolidering, hvor lavere enhedsomkostninger på grund af stordrift kan skabe grundlag for prisfald.
ABG Securities skriver: “We believe the deal put forward by H&F is likely to happen.The bid of DKK 165 is above our DKK 145 model value for Nets while it seems the market for other potential buyershas been thoroughly looked into, so DKK 165 per share appears to be the best alternative for investors.”
Carnegie skriver: “We believe that the offer of DKK165 isa good offer for Nets’ existing shareholders and above ourexpectation of DKK160 in an LBO scenario. Nets has run acompetitive process and as such, we believe that any potential bidders have already showed their interest. Nets confirmed on a conference call that they had been in talks withindustrial buyers, but no offer was received and thus we donot expect any counter offers.”
Danske Bank skriver: “Considering the process and the exclusivity granted to Hellman & Friedman in recent weeks, we find an improved bid unlikely. Our stand-alone DCF values Nets at a fundamental DKK130 value per share. Nets traded at DKK128/share the day before the company confirmed takeover speculation. In our view, the DKK165/shareoffer is attractive and we recommend investors to acceptthis offer.
Bryan, Garner & Co. skriver: “We expect no counterbid.The offer from Hellman & Friedman is generous enoughfor a mainly physical PSP. DKK165 per share represents EV/ EBITDA of 15.0x 2017e and 12.7x 2018e, namely 13.3x over12 rolling months. This compares to 12x historically for aphysical PSP (if we look at all the transactions in this segment since 2009). • We advise Nets shareholders to sell their shares and buy other European PSPs.”
Autonomous skriver: “In conclusion, we think this is agood end to Nets’ short time as a listed company. We believe that the company was richly valued at the time of IPOand faced a lot of competitive headwinds in its core markets. However, management did a good job at meeting it’snear term financial targets, though we were skeptical on the ability to meet medium term targets. We think the new buyer will need to restructure and expand the business outsideof the Nordics. This will probably require large M&A whichcan be financed by Nets’ new owners. In our opinion, sucha transformative restructuring can be done more effectivelyin private ownership and consequently we recommend shareholders to accept the offer.”
UBS skriver: “Nets announced an offer to purchase alloutstanding shares for DKr 165 in cash from Hellman & Friedman – a private equity fund. Following the offer, the factwe have already gone through a sales process (reducing thelikelihood of an upside bid), we raise our price target to DKr165 / share, in-line with the offer and maintain our Neutralrating. The offer values Nets on 13x ‘18E EV/EBITDA and 18xP/E compared to the sector on 13x and 20x, respectively.”
Carnegie skrev i en analyse 6. den juli 2017, altså før købstilbuddet blev kendt, om tendensen mod europæ-isk konsolidering: “In continental Europe, leading payment service provider Worldline has joined forces with Equens tocreate a European-wide payment service provider. RBS hasspun off Worldpay. And recently the commission has clearedthe Oberthurs acquisition by smartcard maker Morpho. Webelieve economies of scale are the common denominator. Processing an extra transaction in the payment service world is virtually free and payment companies can achieve high synergies by streamlining processes internally or through consolidation. After waves of hefty consolidation for years,M&A in the payment service industry is still hot. Although private equity funds have a significant role in the paymentlandscape, the majority of transactions are still completed by strategic buyers.”
Carnegie peger på tre drivkræfter i industrien. ” 1) Diversified payment service providers leveraging M&A to broaden product capabilities. Diversified or full-scale paymentservice providers have been adding product capabilities through acquisitions. This has happened mainly in the e-commerce and POS segments. In the Nordics, Nets has added DIBS and Payzone. The acquisitions have made Nets thebiggest ecommerce player in the Nordics and with a #1 position in market share in all four markets. Bambora, another Nordic player, was brought together by Nordic Capital andcomprises Euroline, MPS, Epay and Samport.”
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