Økonomisk Ugebrevs KonjunkturBarometer for den Globale Økonomi viser fortsat medvind på motorvejen i både Kina, USA og Europa. Men der er mørke skyer forude, som sandsynligvis snart sætter sig i nøgletallene.
Erhvervs- og forbrugertilliden signalerer fortsat godt vejr, og flere af de ledende indikatorer for de store regioner viser den bedste score i flere år. Eksempelvis i den seneste globale måling af PMI erhvervstilliden fra JP Morgen, lyder det sådan:
”Global economic growth gathered momentum in August, with output rising at the quickest pace since April 2015. Rates of increase improved in the manufacturing and service sectors, reflecting ongoing expansions at consumer, intermediate and investment goods producers and across business, consumer and financial services.”
Videre hedder det, at “the euro area saw a further solid gain in economic output, with the pace of increase matching that registered in July. Stronger growth of manufacturing production was offset by a softer increase in service sector activity. Within the currency union, faster growth was seen in Germany and Ireland.”
Det positive billede bekræftes for USA af de seneste indikatorer fra både ISM og Markit, som skriver: “August data signaled an accelerated upturn in business activity across the US service sector. New orders also expanded at a quicker rate, with growth reaching a 25-month high. Higher activity and new business prompted firms to add to their payrolls again in August, and at the quickest rate for nearly two years.”
Atlanta Fed forventer nu en BNP vækst i 3. kvartal i USA på knap tre procent: ”The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.9 percent on September 6, down from 3.2 percent on September 1. The forecast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.0 percent to 2.7 percent after yesterday’s light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). “
Forecastet er de seneste uger blevet nedjusteret fra hele fire procent. Også den lidt mere langsigtede ECRI-indikator har vist opbremsning i den økonomiske aktivitet i USA de seneste måneder.
Om den kinesiske erhvervstillid skriver Markit, at “the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 points to 51.6 in August, the second-highest reading of this year so far.”
At ikke alting alligevel er helt så positive i den globale økonomi, som det ser ud på overfladen, fremgår af de seneste måneders markante dyk i den amerikanske (og europæiske) obligationsrente, samt af de stigende guldpriser.
MWL
