Økonomisk Ugebrevs Globale Konjunkturbarometer viser en flad udvikling, hvor der er stor uklarhed om, hvorvidt vi står foran en svækkelse eller en styrkelse af det generelle billede. De ledende indikatorer viser for tiden ingen klar retning, men undertonen er fortsat negativ, krydret med en betydelig grad af stabilitet. Groft sagt kan man sige, at det ikke går fremad, men det går heller ikke i nævneværdig grad tilbage.
Grundlæggende synes det at have skabt finansiel stabilitet, at der nu ikke er udsigt til nævneværdige amerikanske rentestigninger, og at olie- og råvarepriser er steget de seneste måneder. Økonomisk Ugebrev Globale Konjunkturbarometer er de seneste måneder skiftet fra et meget negativt signal omkring minus 1,0 til nu tæt på en neutral værdi omkring nul, i det samlede udfaldsrum mellem minus to og plus to. Tendensen i den globale økonomi afspejles faktisk meget godt af den pålidelige ledende indikator fra OECD , som viser en vigende udvikling i USA, UK og Tyskland, men stabilitet i hele Euroland og endda lille fremgang i BRIK-landene under ét. Billedet bekræftes også af de nyere data i Markits Flash PMI for eurozonen , som viser lidt lavere vækst i april end i årets første kvartal. Markit skriver, at ”The PMI suggests the pace of economic growth at the start of the second quarter is marginally weaker than the average seen in the first quarter, and slightly slower than the average seen last year. Only moderate growth was again seen in both manufacturing and services. In both cases the rates of expansion were just below the averages for the first quarter of 2016.”
For den toneangivende tyske økonomi i Europa indikerer det tyske IFO samme underdrejede udvikling i økonomien. IFO skriver, at “the mood in the German economy remains positive. The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade dropped to 106.6 points in April from 106.7 points in March. Although companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current situation, their business expectations brightened once again. The moderate upturn in the German economy continues. In manufacturing the business climate improved in April. While manufacturers scaled back their assessments of the current business situation marginally, they were slightly more optimistic about the months ahead. Production plans were ramped up significantly.
For USA synes udviklingen også at være flad, viser de seneste data fra Conference Board : “With the March gain, the U.S. LEI’s six-month growth rate improved slightly but still points to slow, although not slowing, growth in the coming quarters (…) Rebounding stock prices were offset by a decline in housing permits, but nonetheless there were widespread gains among the leading indicators. Financial conditions, as well as expected improvements in manufacturing, should support a modest growth environment in 2016.”
