Den seneste måned er den globale vækst for alvor vendt rundt til stærk fremgang. Sådan tegner billedet sig i både USA, Europa og Kina. Især USA er efter optræk til en afmatningsperiode kommet meget stærkt igen de seneste uger.
Mens de ledende indikatorer fra den amerikanske tænketank Conference Board i de seneste opdateringer har vist en vis svaghed, har andre nyere signaler peget i retning af et meget stærkt nyt vækstmomentum. Både ECRI indikatoren, Citigroup Economic Surprise Index og de foreløbige data for PMI fra Markit viser en overraskende stærk positiv vending de seneste 2-3 uger. I den foreløbige Flash måling fra Markit hedder det, at ”the US economy seems to have made a strong start to the final quarter of 2017. Resilient service sector growth and an encouraging rebound in manufacturing production combined to generate one of the sharpest rises in private sector output for two and-a-half years during October. “There were also positive developments in terms of staff hiring and business optimism during October, suggesting that private sector firms are gearing up for sustained growth in coming months. “Service providers noted that supportive underlying economic conditions had helped to drive up business and consumer spending. Manufacturers cited an element of catch-up to production schedules and orders, following hurricane-related disruption in the third quarter.”
Conference Boards indikatorer har ellers skabt tvivl om robustheden i amerikansk økonomi, men det forklares med vejrliget. Forbrugertilliden er faldet lidt tilbage:
“Consumer confidence decreased slightly in September after a marginal improvement in August. Confidence in Texas and Florida, however, decreased considerably, as these two states were the most severely impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.”
Også den ledende indikator dykkede lidt: “The US LEI declined slightly in September for the first time in the last twelve months, partly a result of the temporary impact of the recent hurricanes. The source of weakness was concentrated in labor markets and residential construction.” Ifølge Markits PMI målinger holder europæisk økonomi sig overraskende robust: “After signalling a 0.7% increase in GDP in Q3, the pace of expansion looks to be staying around this mark as the year draws to a close. Job creation was a key feature of the latest survey as firms took on staff at the quickest pace in over a decade, responding to greater workloads and pressure on capacity.” For Kina ser Fathom i konsulenthusets anerkendte CMI indikator for kinesisk økonomi, nemlig den ”gamle” model drevet af eksport og uproduktive investeringer, men ikke den nødvendige omstilling til en forbrugerdrevet økonomi.
