Ugens vigtigste analyser fra finanshusene

Økonomisk Ugebrev bringer løbende uddrag fra en lang række danske og udenlandske finanshuses analyser af de finansielle markeder, makroøkonomi og temanalyser. På denne side giver vi et kort resume af de vigtigste analyser fra den forgangne uge.

Økonomisk Ugebrevs analysearkiv, som kan findes her, giver direkte adgang til analyser og opdateringer fra ca. 50 danske og udenlandske finanshuse, opdelt på en stribe forskellige kategorier, blandt andet makro, fixed income, kort rente og status fra centralbankerne, FX, temaanalyser og direkte adgang til originalkilde for en stribe centrale økonomiske nøgletal. De løbende analyser bringes på ugebrev.dk.

Ny Disorder truer værdierne og forøger gælden (Deutsche Bank): Deutsche Bank har udarbejdet et dystert fremtidsscenarie på grundlag af coronakrisen og de seneste års udvikling. Banken konkluderer, at fremtiden bliver præget af disorder, der vil true de nuværende høje værdiansættelser, og som vil forøge staters og virksomheders gæld. Det er usandsynligt, at vi kan bevare de værdistigninger, vi har set de seneste år, hedder det.

Det voksende Kina får stor betydning for fremtiden og kan føre til en langvarig konflikt med USA, og de næste ti år kan blive et make-or-break-årti for Europa. Link til analysen.

Hvad er i vente? Kina storopbygger strategiske lagre (Rabobank): “China has announced it plans to boost its strategic commodities reserves to assuage anxiety over energy and food security. Starting in 2021, it will make what Bloomberg calls “mammoth” purchases of crude, strategic materials, and farm goods, officials apparently say.

This is being done to ensure China can ride out any repeat of this year’s supply disruptions, or a deterioration in trade relations with the US, for example.” Link til analysen.

At vinde krigen fører til krigstids-gæld (Merril Lynch): “A “win the war” mentality could lead to more debt and a larger deficit.

During the pandemic, the government’s primary focus has been and will remain the health and safety of the public above all else. Similar to times of war, the government will worry first about winning (helping to stop the spread of the coronavirus), “whatever it takes” approach, and be willing to deal with the aftermath only after the war is won (coronavirus contained).

That was the case during the World War II when the U.S. ramped up defense spending, and the central bank purchased large amounts of Treasury debt to keep interest rates capped at low levels across the yield curve.” Link til analysen.

Efter high-tech kursfald: Spred investeringerne bredt ud (Citi): “US equity valuations are at a historic high relative to others and have been for a significant time.

As the world finds a true solution to COVID-19, this could provide a catalyst for performance in other sectors, away from tech-centered, interest-rate driven equity performance.

Citi analysts remain optimistic regarding the prospects for cyclical assets looking out into a new economic cycle in 2021 and beyond. The relative underperformance of “defensives” in the latest market selloff is just the latest sign that COVID-19 winners are trading richly versus those sectors that remain depressed along with the broader economy.

The potential for positive results from one of the late-stage COVID-19 vaccine trials could fuel a rise in cyclical shares in the months ahead. Nevertheless, technology spending is not expected to decline, but its rate of growth could slow.” Link til analysen.

Europe’s hidden unemployment (ABNamro): Euro Macro: Short-term work schemes still widely used after the end of lockdowns – Germany’s Ifo Institute and France’s DARES have published recent data on the use of short-term work schemes (STW).

STW schemes are designed to allow companies to temporarily reduce the number of working hours of employees (often to zero) while keeping them on the payroll. The government reimburses the companies what they have paid to these employees, which often is around 70-80% of their normal hourly pay.

In Germany, the easing of lock-down measures since early May has resulted in a drop in the number of people working in STW (called Kurzarbeit) from a peak level of 7.3 million people in May, down to 4.6 million in August. As a share of total employment, the percentage of employees working in STW fell from a peak level of 21.7% in May, down to a still very high 14% in August. Link til analysen.

MWL