Økonomisk Ugebrev bringer løbende uddrag fra en lang række danske og udenlandske finanshuses analyser af de finansielle markeder, makroøkonomi og temanalyser. På denne side giver vi et kort resume af de vigtigste analyser fra den forgangne uge. Økonomisk Ugebrevs analysearkiv, som kan findes her, giver direkte adgang til analyser og opdateringer fra ca. 50 danske og udenlandske finanshuse, opdelt på en stribe forskellige kategorier, bl.a. makro, fixed income, kort rente og status fra centralbankerne, FX, temaanalyser og direkte adgang til originalkilde for en stribe centrale økonomiske nøgletal. De løbende analyser bringes på ugebrev.dk.
Deutsche Bank forudser nyt ungdomsoprør, der rammer investorerne: Intergenerational Conflict: The Next Dividing Line: The widening generational divide should be a key source of alarm for investors, financial markets and society as a whole. Young people perceive themselves as the losers on issues ranging from housing to climate change to student debt. In turn, this anger is manifesting itself into political outcomes, with elections around the world increasingly fought along generational lines. Link til analyse.
Goldmans 10 regler: Her er fremtidens Top 5-vækstaktier: To identify the potential “future five,” Goldman used the Rule of Ten criteria that screens for stocks with a track record of strong realized sales growth and expectations of continued superior revenue growth; this concept was introduced back in 2016 when Goldman first introduced our “Rule of Ten” which attempted to identify secular growth stocks based on the following criteria: Realized sales growth of at least 10% in each of the last two years; Expected sales growth of at least 10% in each of the next two years (now using consensus estimates).” Link til analyse.
Vil USA nogensinde hæve renten? (ABN Amro): US Watch – Will the Fed ever raise rates again? The Fed has made a much more significant change to its policy framework than might appear. An average inflation target means rates are not likely to rise before 2025-2027 as a base case……and if the Fed struggles, rates may stay low indefinitely. We do not expect additional easing steps by the Fed to achieve the new goal, but rather a reliance on stronger forward guidance. The new framework gives a green light to Congress to spend more vigorously in the coming years. A key uncertainty is therefore how the political landscape evolves, and specifically, the outcome of the November election.” Link til analyse.
BP i outlook-analyse: Olieefterpørgsel når aldrig niveau før COVID-19: The world is past the era of growing crude oil demand, BP said in its annual energy outlook report, which was released today.The message of the outlook, according to media reports, is that oil consumption may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, and not just because of the pandemic itself but because of factors that have been at play long before the coronavirus made the jump from bats to humans. “Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” the company said in the report. “the scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation.” Link til analyse.
Morgan Stanley: Hvad nu, hvis flere stimuli udebliver? Markets Ponder a Trillion-Dollar Question: A downward adjustment in some high-flying U.S. tech stocks has put investors on edge this month, but an impasse on fiscal stimulus negotiations may be the real issue to watch. In September the NASDAQ has come back down to earth, so to speak, declining about 10% from its peak. This move has certainly been uncomfortable for investors and driven overall market volatility, given the size of that index. Link til analyse.
Forsker: Den reelle inflation er markant højere end den officielle.
In a NBER-paper titled “Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets“, professor Albert Cavallo calculates that the true inflation rate for Covid-connected purchases is 1.85%, more than 40% higher than the Consumer Price Index. Cavallo writes that “the Covid-19 Pandemic has led to changes in consumer expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the measurement of inflation.” Using data collected from credit and debit transactions in the US to update the official basket weights and estimate the impact on the Consumer Price Index, Cavallo finds that “the Covid inflation rate is higher than the official CPI in the US, for both headline and core indices. I also find similar results with Covid baskets in 10 out of 16 additional countries.” Link til analyse.