Uddrag fra Morgan Stanley
| MS bank analysts see a meaningful increase in funding costs ahead, which will lead to tighter lending standards, slower loan growth, and wider loan spreads. Ellen Zentner believes this raises the risk that a soft landing turns into a harder one. MS models show that a permanent +10pt tightening in lending standards for C&I loans leads to a 35bps rise in the unemployment rate over the next two years. Historically, recessions have arrived more than half a year after jobless claims begin a sustained rise. |
 Morgan Stanley |
