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13 aktuelle grafer, der kan indikere noget om retningen på aktiemarkedet

Morten W. Langer

lørdag 15. november 2025 kl. 17:51

1 – Testing testing 1 2 3
The 50-day moving average in S&P500 has been tested twice over the past 6 days. Will it hold or not…?
Bloomberg
2 – A legend puts it bluntly
Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly:

“When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE.”

Today the market sits at a 25x P/E. Add inflation… and your “returns” are negative. The chart shows Shiller adjusted PE that is also high…

Haver
3 – Trump’s approval rating
How will Trump react to approval rate slump?
Macrobond
4 – BTC vs Bonds
Bitcoin is now underperforming U.S. Treasuries over the last year. Bond bro’s on top and are now stealing the Bitcoin Bro’s supermodel girlfriends.
@barchart
5 – Off highs
A random list of high-quality and not so high quality assets and their % below 52-week high:

Apple: -1%

S&P: -3%

Gold: -4%

Nvidia: -12%

Tesla: -16%

Palantir: -17%

Bitcoin: -22%

MicroStrategy: -62%

Dogecoin: -66%

Trump Media: -73%

Fartcoin: -90%

Trump Coin: -91%

Melania Coin: -99%

6 – MSTR
That is a technical support right…?
7 – MoMo matters
We just had the biggest one day drawdown in high beta momentum since the DeepSeek debacle.
GS trading desk
8 – No MoMo melt-up
Momentum Seasonality: Nov-Dec and Dec-Jan tend to be weakest periods for Momentum with some fairly large drawdowns in recent years between Nov and Feb…
JPM PI
9 – Tech darlings: cancel Christmas
US TMT momentum stocks normally do not do that well this time of the year.
JPM PI
CCC territory
Want some data center junk?
Bloomberg
11 – AI valuations suddenly a concern?
Key issue is debt-financed capex, but for sure easy money could help and will always be available…?
Macrobond
Macrobond
12 – AI getting upgraded
Earnings revisions across AI-exposed equities since the start of 4Q 2025. Important and bullish.
Goldman
13 – Food inflation
We know probably some of you do not hesitate to drop $1000 for one dinner at Cipriani but… the average monthly price of groceries for a family of four in the US is now $1,030… +30% just since Covid.
Arbor Data Science

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