Uddrag fra Soc. Generale, Apollo og Goldman Sachs
Caution & uncertainty
Hope springs eternal in China and we will probably have a few more attempts to rally in 2025 based off some 2nd derivative macro indicator that things are getting less bad. But never once forget that the Chinese economy is under serious attack. With China potentially being among the first to face a tariff hike, this supports our view that uncertainty linked to trade and geopolitical risks is likely to remain elevated. The Chinese New Year holiday is coming up – but there should be little cause for celebration. Let’s look at some still very relevant bearish Chinese macro charts.
1 – The demographic nightmare
China’s demographic trajectory looks very unfavorable.
Source: Goldman
2 – Workers halved
In 2000, there were 10 workers per retiree. Today, there are 5.
Source: Apollo
3 – Corrections take time
House price correction normally takes 6 years after major crises.
Source: Soc Gen
4- The deflating factor
The deflating housing bubble has been having a negative impact on GDP.
Source: Apollo
5 – Scary streak
GDP deflator negative for seven consecutive quarters.
Source: Soc Gen
6 – Crazy & unsustainable
Home price-to-income ratio four times higher in Shanghai than in New York.
Source: Numbeo
7 – Deep recession
China real estate index in recession territory.
Source: Apollo
8 – We got vacancies
Average Chinese vacancy rates higher than G7 countries.
Source: Apollo
9 – More prone to crisis
Chinese economy more prone to real estate crisis as real estate investment accounts for a bigger share of GDP in China than in US.
Source: Apollo
10 – FDI falling fast
You are on your own! Now this is a telling chart if you ever saw one…
Source: Apollo
11 – Indebted nation
High debt levels.
Source: Apollo
12 – Credit growth is decelerating
Credit growth is decelerating on all fronts, except that to the government.
