ING har opstillet tre scenarier for den økonomiske udvikling i de kommende måneder, men de viser alle, at vi får en kraftig nedtur i år – især i Europa med en minusvækst på omkring 9 pct. og i USA med omkring 5 pct. Det helt afgørende bliver, hvornår en virus er udviklet. Der kommer højst sandsynligt en turbulent vinter. Den seneste tids anløb til en forværring af smittetallene er måske kun en optakt.
September Economic Update: V for virus, vaccine, and a V-shaped recovery?
Three new scenarios for the global economy as the recovery heads for a turbulent winter
- Three new scenarios for the global recovery’s next phase
With the economic rebound from Covid-19 now in full swing, we look at what could be a turbulent path to full recovery. Our new-look scenarios map out potential paths for the global economy depending on how the virus spreads over the winter, and how quickly a vaccine is certified and rolled out to the wider population
- US: The surge subsides
High-frequency data suggests that the post-reopening surge in activity began to moderate in July and this process continued throughout August. With the pandemic continuing to create many challenges, we doubt the economy will fully heal before 2022
- US Politics: Biden’s to lose?
Opinion polls suggest Joe Biden has a commanding lead over President Donald Trump, but with two months to go, there are plenty of things that could change that situation. Whoever wins, the battle for the House and Senate will be critical to determining how many of their respective promises can be delivered
- Eurozone: The rebound continues… for now
The eurozone is still on track to see a very strong third-quarter growth figure. However, recent indicators signal some deceleration. Meanwhile, inflation is undershooting expectations paving the way for an extension to the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme
- Eurozone: Short-time work provides cushion to double dip worries
Worries about a double-dip recession are increasing in the eurozone as disappointing survey data for August provides a reality check on the pace of recovery. Government support offers a significant tailwind for the economy though. While a double-dip is not unthinkable, it looks like growth can still continue albeit at a slower pace in the coming months.
- FX: The dollar bear trend: It’s only just begun
US fiscal policy paralysis and a change in monetary policy strategy from the Federal Reserve make the case for the dollar bear trend extending well into next year. We revise up our end 2021 EUR/USD forecast to 1.25
- Rates: Why we want a steeper curve
We think the US yield curve can steepen further. We also hope it does. A steeper curve gels with a reflation theme and has wider benefits. It can lift Europe, and beyond. The Fed’s move to average inflation targeting helps, but guarantees nothing. The curve is smart though; this time last year it was inverted, discounting a recession – we got one. Where next?
