”United States Donald Trump has been quick to name his cabinet picks as he looks to deliver on his key election promises of tax cuts, immigration controls, tariffs to incentivise re-shoring and cost-cutting efficiency savings to rein in the deficit. Tax cuts and immigration restrictions are the easiest to make early progress on, while the speed and scale of tariff hikes remain open for debate. That said, it is assumed China and Mexico will feel the heat first, potentially within days of Trump’s inauguration. There will be no winners from this with US consumers and exporters paying a high price. There remains significant scepticism over how deeply Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, coheads of the Department of Government Efficiency, will be able to make the spending cuts required to bring the US fiscal position under control. The Federal Reserve has been swift to acknowledge that they may not need to cut interest rates as quickly or as far as previously thought. The prospect of slightly stronger near-term growth as election clarity prompts some businesses to put money to work is set beside the risk of lingering tariff-induced inflation. Consequently, the December FOMC outcome is a coin toss. We still favour a December move with a January pause, but it could turn out to be the other way around.”
Læs hele analysen her
Morten W. Langer
