ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af MT Højgaard Holding:
- Write-downs (~DKK 22m) overshadow a great Q2
- We expect a high ~4% adj. EBIT margin for H2’21
- No changes to ’22-‘23e; ~4% ’22e EBIT margin remains
Strong order intake continues, and could accelerate
MTHH delivered solid Q2 revenue of DKK 1,743m (10% vs. ABGSC and 9% vs. Factset consensus), but several negative write-downs during the quarter ultimately led to a gross profit of DKK 120m (-15% vs. ABGSC and -10% vs. cons.); EBIT (b.s.i) was DKK 21m (-40% vs. ABGSC and -46% vs. cons.). As expected, MTHH included the two major projects of Rønne Harbour (~DKK 300m) and the Nykredit HQ (Holm 8) (~DKK 1.6bn) into its order intake along with DKK 1bn in underlying orders for a total Q2 order intake of DKK 3,000m (-14% vs. ABGSC and -16% vs. cons.). We expected the momentum of DKK 1.5bn in underlying orders to have continued into Q2, but management sees timing as the key contributor and sees an uptick in activity in H2’21. We thus reiterate our FY’21e order intake of DKK 10bn (6% y-o-y), implying a H2’21e intake on par with H1’21. The gross margin was impacted by DKK 30m in negative net write-downs (vs. DKK 15m in H1’20) and a DKK 8m accounting loss from a property sale in the project development business to release capital for other projects. We have updated our order intake model on pages 3-4, and note a shift in composition towards building projects this past year, and continue to see high activity.
Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.
