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ABN Amro: Deflation i Europa

Hugo Gaarden

onsdag 01. april 2020 kl. 14:00

Eurozonen havner ikke blot i en recession. Der kommer også deflation, ikke mindst på grund af det kraftige fald i oliepriserne, inden udviklingen retter sig i 2021.

Uddrag fra ABN Amro:

Global Daily – The coming disinflation

Euro Macro: Headline inflation will turn negative, core inflation to gradually decline – While there is a broad consensus that the eurozone and global economy have entered a deep recession, there has been more debate recently about the consequences for the inflation outlook. It has been argued by some commentators that we are facing a supply shock (which means lower output, but higher prices) coupled by an unprecedented scale of monetary and fiscal stimulus, which will lead to a surge in inflation. We fundamentally disagree with this view point. The hit to the global economy in this crisis looks to reflect a combination of demand (lower output and prices) and supply shock. However, it seems likely to us that the demand shock is actually dwarfing the supply shock at this stage. The key driver of the downward revisions to our growth forecasts has been the likelihood of sharp falls in discretionary consumer spending. In addition, there will be a second round demand shock from tightening financial conditions, rising unemployment and corporate defaults. The macro stimulus measures that we are seeing are likely to only partially offset this shock to demand, and we judge that spare capacity will build in coming quarters, which will bear down on underlying inflationary pressures. As well as these more medium-term downward pressures, the collapse in oil prices will be an immediate drag on inflation.

We present our updated inflation forecast in the chart below. In the near term, inflation is likely to fall sharply due to the correction in oil prices. Indeed, we already see signs of this in the early March inflation data (see below). In the second quarter, we think HICP inflation will register negative numbers on a year-over-year basis. Assuming some recovery in oil prices later in the year, headline inflation should bounce back sharply towards 2% by mid-2021. However, beyond that, headline inflation will fall again to converge towards core inflation. Core inflation is likely to slow significantly in coming quarters. Given the weakness in demand, we expect core inflation to fall to just 0.6% by the end of next year from around 1.2% now. As a comparison, core inflation fell by around a percentage point following the global financial crisis. (Nick Kounis)

Eurozone inflation drops in Ma

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