ABN Amro vurderer, at Tyskland klarede sig relativt godt gennem fjerde kvartal – der kommer tal på fredag. Men derimod venter banken minusvækst i første kvartal. Det viser forskellige indikatorer som Ifop også. Det skyldes en dårlig tysk håndtering af coronakrisen. Tyskland havde ikke så skrap en lockdown i efteråret og starten på vinteren som andre europæiske lande, men det førte til en voldsom vækst i coronatilfældene. Så strammede Tyskland kraftigt til før jul, og det har især trykket forbruget stærkt. Så selv om Tyskland kom relativt godt gennem 2020 i kraft af en stærk industrisektor, så er det den politiske håndtering af krisen, som giver et økonomisk tilbageslag.
Germany resilient in Q4 but worse to come
Euro Macro: Germany’s GDP probably stable in Q4, outlook for Q1 worse –
On Friday 29 January, the first estimate for Germany’s GDP growth in 2020Q4 will be published. The consensus forecasts is for a stabilisation in GDP compared to the level of Q3, which is also our own estimate.
It seems that Germany has outperformed the eurozone total in the final quarter of last year, as eurozone GDP is expected to contract that quarter (we have pencilled in -2.5% qoq). The relative resilience of the German economy can partly be attributed to the large share of industrial output in Germany’s GDP and the fact that the global industrial sector and world trade have continued to recover in the final months of last year, making up for the losses during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020H1.
Indeed, on a 3m-o-3m basis industrial production in Germany was up by more than 6% in November, versus 4.5% for the eurozone total. Furthermore, lockdown measures to limit the spreading of the COVID-19 virus were less stringent in Germany than in other big eurozone countries such as France, Italy and Spain from the middle of October to the middle of December 2020.
Indeed, the volume of retail sales in Germany was up by 2% 3m-o-3m in November, whereas the eurozone total fell by 0.5%. New car registrations expanded by almost 5% qoq in Q4 in Germany, whereas they contracted by 14.5% qoq in France.
Since the middle of December 2020, the lockdown measures in Germany have become more stringent than in the other three big eurozone countries, as measures were stepped up noticeably in Germany, whereas they were relaxed somewhat in France and remained more or less unchanged in Spain and Italy.
Due to the stricter lockdown measures in Germany, we expect Germany’s GDP to contract in 2021Q1. Such a decline in GDP in Q1 has also been signalled by Germany’s surveys for January.
Consumer confidence fell from -6.8 in December to -7.3 in January, dropping further below its long-term average value of 6, and ending up well below the highest level since the start of the pandemic, which was -0.2 in August 2020.
Also, the Ifo business climate indicator fell to 90.1 in January, down from 92.2 in December. The forward looking expectations component (down from 93.0 to 91.1) dropped sharply lower in all sectors (industry, services, retail and wholesale trade and construction) and signals contraction in activity. With the exception of the manufacturing sector, the Ifo current conditions index also declined in all sectors.
Finally, Germany’s services sector PMI dropped further below the 50 boom-bust level in January (to 46.8, down from 47.0 in December). Although the manufacturing PMI (at 57.0) remained comfortably in growth territory in January, it fell from 58.3 in December, signalling that industrial production continues to expand but at a slower pace, and likely not fast enough to compensate for the intensifying drop in services.
