ABN Amro skriver i en analyse over coronabekæmpelsen og den økonomiske genopretning, at Europa er langt bagefter Kina og USA, og at det skyldes dårlig politisk ledelse. Det ses i, at Europa er langt efter USA og UK i vaccinationerne, og dermed kommer der ikke gang i økonomien, som blev bremset med lockdowns. Kina slog pandemien ned meget hurtigt for et år siden, omend med barske metoder, og Kina kunne nå op på det normale niveau allerede i efteråret, mens Europa tidligst kommer på niveau i slutningen af 2023. USA klarer den økonomiske genopretning bedre end Europa og kommer måske på niveau ved udgangen af i år. USA pumpede flere penge i omløb end Europa og gav direkte penge til forbrugerne, mens Europa satsede på at sikre arbejdspladserne. Det giver også en forskel i genopretningen. USA vil vokse med 5,8 pct. i år, mens Europa kun vil vokse med 3,3 pct.
Is the Eurozone missing the boat?
In view of the rapidly evolving situation, we have developed two alternative scenarios: one with an earlier reopening and one with a later reopening. Depending on how events pan out, the second round effects such as business bankruptcies and unemployment will be lower or higher. With the end of the crisis is in sight, a divergence is beginning to emerge in the recovery paths of the largest economies.
Though the pandemic hit all parts of the world in virtually the same manner, not every region is equally well-placed for recovery.
Policy choices at the heart of divergence
Policy choices lie at the root of these differences – choices about health crisis management, fiscal stimulus for consumers and businesses and, finally, central bank interventions. Obviously, multiple other factors also influence the economic impact of the virus and a country’s ability to recover: dependence on tourism, quality of digital infrastructure, fear of infection and vaccination take-up (acceptance and speed).
All these differences jointly have brought about a strong divergence between the various national escape routes from the crisis. The eurozone, for one, is clearly falling behind. The lockdown currently in force across Europe is causing substantial economic damage: almost twice as much (-6.8%) as in the US (-3.5%) in 2020. On the other hand, the death toll in the US is far higher (per 100,000 inhabitants).
The Chinese government’s intervention to quell the virus was relatively brief but draconian. The Chinese economy has largely got over the contraction sustained in early 2020 and was already outpacing its pre-pandemic growth trajectory at the end of last year. As for the eurozone we expect 3.3% and 4.2% growth, respectively, in 2021 and 2022.
Compare that with the US economy, which is looking at 5.8% and 4.1% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. A substantial difference!
The US is thus on course to close the output gap by the end of 2021, while eurozone prosperity will still be languishing at 3.3% below potential at the end of 2022.
Apart from the fundamental differences in attitude towards the virus and the underlying economic structure, this divergence is attributable to marked differences in fiscal stimulus policy. Both the scale (about 8% of GDP in the eurozone versus about 15% of GDP in the US) and the nature of fiscal support matter in this context. The US focused on boosting demand (think of the stimulus checks) while most Eurozone countries targeted financial support at businesses to help them keep staff on the payroll.
